Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ALONG BASE OF SFC RIDGE DRAPES
ACROSS SW PART OF CWA. MOST OF CWA WAS WORKED OVER BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION THAT MOVED NE SO DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY LIMITED.
GOOD LLVL SHEAR REMAINS IN THE VCNTY OF BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING.
JET STREAK CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH S PART OF CWA ALONG BASE OF
EASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVR
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF MRX CWA AND AID IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH. TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MID LVL DRYING BEHIND IT. FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVRNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. SFC FLOW
BECOME MORE SWRLY ON MON AND HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. SHOULD BE A SET UP
FOR NORMAL DIURNAL ACTVTY. WENT WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POPS LEANING
TOWARD A GFS SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SHORT INTO THE AREA FM THE
SW DURING MAX HEATING. BETTER THAN NORMAL SUMMER LIKE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ON TUE. NEXT SHORT WAVE FM THE NW LOOKING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN. WILL STICK WITH SLOWER GFS SOLUTION FOR
NOW. FRONT AND BULK OF PCPN MOVES INTO MRX CWA TUE NGT.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FRONT LINGERS ACROSS AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  ETA DRIER ON WEDNESDAY THAT GFS.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE DECREASING ON
THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL NEAR...WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.   FRONT SOUTH OF AREA BY
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE LIMITED BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  89  70  88 /  40  30  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  88  69  87 /  40  30  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  88  69  86 /  30  30  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  87  66  85 /  40  30  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC......NONE.
TN......NONE.
VA......NONE.

&&

SON/GH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-040830-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
405 AM EDT (305 AM CDT) SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME
HEATING.  A FEW STORMS MIGHT REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS...BUT
MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.  THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY UP TO 45 MPH.  REMEMBER...THAT ALL THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMBINING...TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

TG