Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
955 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...FOG BURNING OFF AND SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MID
MORNING. GOOD HEATING EARLY WILL ALLOW FOR MOD-STRONG INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE. UPPER TROUGH MOVING E
TO THE NORTH OF TN WILL AID IN LIFT. BEST CONVERGENCE EARLY ALONG
NORTHERN PLATEAU THEN PROGRESSES SE THROUGH THE MRX CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. HAIL THREAT LOOKS LOW BUT CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IS ON TRACK.  CURRENT FCST OF MORE CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR TDY REMAINS THE SAME. RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY AREA-WIDE. STORM MOTIONS TO THE SE NEAR 15 MPH MAY LESSEN
MINOR FLOODING THREAT BUT HOURLY RATES AROUND THREE QUARTERS TO ONE
INCH WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC......NONE.
TN......NONE.
VA......NONE.

&&

SON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-020830-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
400 AM EDT (300 AM CDT) FRI JUL 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING
...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...RETURNS
TO THE FORECAST ON THE FOURTH OF JULY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
...WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN A FEW AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-012200-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
100 PM EDT...(1200 PM CDT) FRI JUL 1 2005

...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH
THESE STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH...WITH HIGHER RATES WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
STREETS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. SMALL HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE HOURS OF
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL REACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND
HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SON