Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A WEAK TROUGH (OR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY) GENERALLY ALONG THE TN/KY
BORDER...WITH CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU CONCENTRATING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY. WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE
SUN SETS THIS EVENING. THINK THAT A FEW ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THIS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
PLAN TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD PERSISTENCE...SINCE TOMORROW
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. THINK THAT AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED
THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...FORECAST AREA IS
CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND BERMUDA RIDGE
TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. WEAK TROUGH WILL STILL BE
OVER THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WITH TROPICAL AIR COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. GFS MODEL SHIFTS THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS RIDGING FROM THE WEST MOVES TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY. THE NAM STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE BUT KEEPS THE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH MODELS TENDING TO GO TOO HIGH IN THE SUMMER PREFER THE LOWER
GFS. FOLLOWED A DIURNAL TREND WITH HIGHER POPS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FOLLOW THE SAME TREND WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST AROUND
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND MAY MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THIS COULD GIVE THE AREA A MORE
SOAKING RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AND POPS
DOWN TO 20 PERCENT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  86  70  87 /  40  40  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  85  69  86 /  40  40  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  86  69  86 /  40  40  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  83  66  84 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC......NONE.
TN......NONE.
VA......NONE.

&&

DMG/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
830 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-281000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
830 AM EDT (730 AM CDT) MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS STORMS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

DMG