Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
329 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER EAST TENNESSEE WITH SHORTWAVE TRIGGERING AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL COOLING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM
POSSIBLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS OVER MORGAN COUNTY.
OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG A LINE OVER
NORTHERN AL INTO CENTRAL GA. SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
EAST CENTRAL TN WITH A COLD FRONT ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER STRETCHING
TO THE WEST TO NEAR JACKSON TN. SOME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT FOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLATEAU
AND CENTRAL VALLEY WHERE OVERNIGHT RAINS OF UP TO TWO INCHES
SATURATED THE SOIL. BEHIND THE FRONT SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. SOME CU WILL STILL BE AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED GFS GENERALLY FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND
HIGHS SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO COOLER VALUES THAN SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. 11
DEGREE DIFFERENCE FORECASTED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN END OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERN END OF OUR FORECAST AREA PER MAV GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY.

SUNDAY...A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER 18Z AS ENOUGH HEATING AND
NEARBY MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE PREFERRED THE GFS
FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT AS IT HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH TODAYS STORM
SYSTEM.

SUNDAY NIGHT...BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THIS PERIOD. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALL BUT SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THIS WAS DONE
BECAUSE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES LIKELY POPS WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
A LITTLE CONCERNED TO GO SO HIGH WITH POPS SO FAST DUE TO GFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATING A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GOOD RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM
PROVIDE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST POPS SO HIGH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA RAPIDLY IN THE MORNING
HOURS...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ONLY BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPIRALS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS AS UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT ALONG WITH NECESSARY
MOISTURE. POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT HIGHEST IN THE
UPPER ELEVATIONS. HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST DUE TO
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE -SHRA.

WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND KICK THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR 80 SOUTH AND MID 70S NORTH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...YESTERDAYS 00 AND 12Z GFS INDICATED A LARGE
PIECE OF ENERGY AND MCS MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THESE
DAYS. DIDNT GO WITH THE GFS ON THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO
FOLLOW THE GFS CLOSER TODAY WHEN IT AGAIN INDICATED A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND LIFT ACROSS MY CWA IN NEARLY THE SAME
LOCATION AS YESTERDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AT THIS POINT IN LINE WITH MEX GUIDANCE AND TO MATCH WELL
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH EACH PERIOD WERE SET WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV
GUIDANCE AND WERE UNDERCUT SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             61  81  59  83 /  20  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  78  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       57  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  74  49  74 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC......NONE.
TN......NONE.
VA......NONE.

&&

TD/KG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             OAKDALE                 35.99N 84.56W
05/20/2005  1.00 INCH        MORGAN             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT OAKDALE. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

GRC

TNZ071-202000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
335 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AT 325 PM EDT A THIN FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED NEAR MCGHEE-TYSON
AIRPORT...SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE...FROM A GROWNING THUNDERSTORM.  THE
FUNNEL HAS DISSIPATED.  RADAR AND SPOTTERS HAVE NOT NOTED ORGANIZED
STORM-SCALE ROTATION WITH THIS STORM.  THIS STORM IS BEING MONITORED
CLOSELY AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AT 20 MPH THROUGH SOUTHERN BLOUNT
COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR EAST TENNESSEE.

TNZ071-202000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION...NO SEVERE WATCH IN EFFECT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
335 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AT 325 PM EDT A THIN FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED NEAR MCGHEE-TYSON
AIRPORT...SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE...FROM A GROWING THUNDERSTORM.  THE
FUNNEL HAS DISSIPATED.  RADAR AND SPOTTERS HAVE NOT NOTED ORGANIZED
STORM-SCALE ROTATION WITH THIS STORM.  THIS STORM IS BEING MONITORED
CLOSELY AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AT 20 MPH THROUGH SOUTHERN BLOUNT
COUNTY.

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