Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Marquette, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
435 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING)...

MAIN FCST CONCERN IS FOCUS ON COVG/INTENSITY OF ONGOING CNVCTN.

CONVECTION ATTM RUNNING FM W LK SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL WI. LATEST RUC
SHOWS SHRTWV LIFTING INTO WCNTRL WI WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FNT NOW
OBSERVED INTO THE SWRN COUNTIES. RUC SHOWS DECENT DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR
CNVGC OVER THE WRN ZNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV. MODIFIED 12Z GRB
SDNG FOR 85/64 YIELDS CAPE OF 1400 J/KG WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH
LAPS ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS BUBBLE OF HIGHER CAPES EXTENDING INTO
CNTRL UPR MI (IMT-SAW) AHEAD OF CONVECTION THAT HAS ALREADY PUSHED
ACROSS FAR W UPR MI WITH LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE AROUND WAKEFIELD (SEE
LSRMQT). PARAMETERS OFF SVR CHKLIST WERE MARGINAL FOR TORNADO
FORMATION ALG THIS BNDRY...NR THE LO END OF THE SCALE. ONCE CURRENT
CONVECTION REACHES CNTRL ZONES IT LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS
CAPES ARE MUCH LOWER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW FM LK MI/BAY OF GREEN BAY.
HAVE LOWER POPS OVR E ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM (OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

MAY BE A BREAK LATER TONIGHT AFTER EVENING CONVECTION TIED TO WARM
FRONT AND MESOSCALE VORT MAX FM W CNTRL WI LIFTS N OF CWA. WRN CWA
DOES REMAIN ON FRINGE ANY WEAK/SMALL IMPULSES LIFTING NE IN OVERALL
SW FLOW ALOFT AND IN REGION WHERE ANY LLJ WILL BE PRESENT. KEPT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT IN WEST BUT ONLY ISOLD FARTHER E. FOR FIRST
HALF OF SAT W TIER WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON FRINGE OF BETTER DEEP
LAYER FORCING GRAZING AREA IN SW FLOW. CHANCES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
SHOULD RAMP UP BY AFTN AS SHORTWAVE/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
FM S PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH E MN AND W WI. CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS FM
BLOWOFF OFF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY HOLD DOWN TEMPS OVR FAR
W...OTHERWISE MIXING HEIGHTS AND PERSISTENCE SUPPORT LOW-MID 80S OVR
C/E ZONES AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. BLYR WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PIN LK SUPERIOR BREEZE TO AREAS RIGHT ALONG IMMEDIATE SHORE.

MLCAPES BASED FM LWR 100MB IN TROPOSPHERE RISE TO 1000-1500J/KG IN
AFTN...HIGHEST OVR CNTRL ZONES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CIN
AS WELL. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES START OUT DAY AROUND 25KT THEN RISE TO
35-40KT BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE FM SW APPROACHES.
TRIGGER DURING DAY IS LACKING WITH NOT MUCH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER SOME
SHRA/TS IN AFTN...BUT THINK LARGE SCALE CONVECTION WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATER SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT. SHORTWAVE AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALL SWEEP ACROSS AREA SAT
NIGHT AND ARE TEAMED WITH LLJ AIMED AT UPR MI OF 35-40KT PER NAM/GFS.
BEST INSTABILITY MAY STAY SHUNTED TO S WHICH COULD MITIGATE SVR
THREAT SOMEWHAT...BUT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BOOST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS OVR W HALF AND APPEARS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY LIKELY
POPS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF
LATE SAT NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL RIDE THE LIKELY POPS THROUGH 10Z
AND FINE TUNE IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

PRIMARY FRONT SINKS THROUGH CWA ON SUN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS
AROUND 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTN. TWEAKED GOING GRIDS TO DRIFT POPS BACK
FARTHER W IN AFTN NEAR THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
ACROSS UPR MI SUN NIGHT AND A DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE OVR ALL
CWA BY SUN EVENING INTO EARLY MON.

EXTENDED...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL IDEA FOR THE MON-FRI TIME
FRAME. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE UPR LOW CROSSING EAST TO WEST ACROSS
N TIER OF CONUS. 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH CANADIAN
AND UKMET ALL SUPPORTIVE OF SOLN THAT LEADS TO SHRA/TS CHANCES
MON-WED THEN GRADUALLY DRYING OUT THU-FRI. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES A BIT
FARTHER S WITH TRACK OF UPR LOW...BUT SIMILAR TO HPC...PREFER TO
TREND FCST TOWARD CONSENSUS SOLN ATTM. EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
SOMETIME IN THE TUE-WED PERIOD AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD UPR
MI. 12Z RUN OF GFS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SHIFTING UPR LOW INTO E
LAKES BY FRI WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO ONTARIO AND UPR LAKES...SO
WENT DRY OVER ENTIRE CWA BY THEN. UNTIL UPR LOW REACHES THE AREA
TEMPS SHOULD STAY ON WARM SIDE OF ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE (LOWS IN UPR
50S/HIGHS AROUND 80). DEVELOPING NE FLOW IN WAKE OF UPR LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD PRODUCE MUCH COOLER TEMPS BY THU/FRI WITH
MOST AREAS STAYING IN 60S FOR MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S WAKEFIELD           46.39N 89.93W
06/10/2005                   GOGEBIC            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS CHANEY LAKE RD

&&

WOOD

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