Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
VESTIGES OF EASTERN ND MCS EXPECTED TO ROLL SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
1000-500 MB THICKNESS LINES THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH 06Z NAM BRINGS
QPF INTO MSP BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH DRY
FORECAST IN EAST CENTRAL MN BASED ON ABOVE PRECIPITATION EXPECTATION
AND WEAKENING FORCING THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LAST FEW RUNS OF GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOCATIONS WITH RESPECT TO OUR
CWA.  HOWEVER...LAST 2 RUNS OF THE GFS AND LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM
HAVE ALL PAINTED THE SAME PICTURE...WITH STRONG 850 MB THETA E
ADVECTION...VERY NEGATIVE ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES...STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA IN THE 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME...SO HAVE
BUMPED MOST OF THE POPS INTO OR NEAR LIKELY CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY...THE NAM MOS AND GFS MOS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SAME
POP VALUES FOR TONIGHT AFTER BEING AT ODDS FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS.

LEFTOVERS FROM THE MCS MAY STILL BE ON-GOING ON SUNDAY
MORNING...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...STRONG CAP IS FORECAST
TO ENVELOPE OUR CWA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LEFT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS PER
PREVIOUS GRIDS...AS TIMING FROM NORTHERN SYSTEM ON LATEST RUNS
SIMILAR TO TIMING ON PREVIOUS RUNS.

DID RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...AS LACK OF
PRECIPITATION...AND STRONG CAP SHOULD FAVOR TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS
HIGH AS SUNDAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR VALUES FOR MONDAY
AT STILL TOO CONSERVATIVE.

LONGER TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
INTERESTING EXTENDED FCST ON DECK...WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES APPARENT IN THE CURRENT MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE SOLNS. 00Z GFS/CANADIAN AND 02/12Z ECMWF AGREE REASONABLY
WELL ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO PASS THRU THE
RGN MON NGT AND TUE...AS WELL AS THE COVERAGE OF PCPN ALONG THE
BNDRY. MADE ONLY A FEW CHGS TO THE POP/WX FCST WITH THIS FEATURE...
PRIMARILY TO EXTEND THE 40 PCT POPS FARTHER E ON TUE. FOLLOWING THE
FROPA...THE RESPECTIVE MODEL SOLNS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT...WITH THE
00Z GFS AND 02/18Z DGEX FAVORING A VERY WET AND WARM FCST BY KEEPING
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HI ACRS NRN MN AND SRN CANADA...WHEREAS THE
02/12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE SFC HI MUCH FARTHER S. HAVE SUBSCRIBED TO
THE ECMWF SOLN...DUE TO ITS SUPERIOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...IN
ADDITION TO THE FEELING THAT THIS SOLN IS MORE LOGICAL. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE KEPT MUCH OF WED AND THU DRY WITH STEADILY WARMING
TEMPS. THU NGT AND INTO FRI BRINGS A VIGOROUS UPR TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA...AS WELL AS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD PCPN AND ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPS. ATTM...WKEND LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS WITH SFC HI NOSING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROF.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MN...NONE.
.WI...NONE.

&&

RJN/KAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
836 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-041036-
ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-
LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE-
836 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIZ014>016-023>028-041036-
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST CROIX-
836 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM MINNESOTA. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

RAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
139 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HAIL             SUNBURG                 45.35N 95.24W
09/03/2005  1.75 INCH        KANDIYOHI          MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
153 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             NEW LONDON              45.30N 94.95W
09/03/2005  1.75 INCH        KANDIYOHI          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RAH