Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 211034
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
531 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

MNC047-161-211045-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0226.000000T0000Z-050721T1045Z/
WASECA MN-FREEBORN MN-
531 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 545 AM CDT FOR
FREEBORN AND WASECA COUNTIES...

AT 528 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR HEARTLAND...NEAR ALBERT 
LEA...NEAR HEARTLAND AND 5 MILES NORTH OF WALDORF. THESE STORMS WERE 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CLARKS GROVE...NEW 
RICHLAND AND WASECA. 

LAT...LON 4386 9376 4386 9364 4351 9364 4352 9307
      4384 9307 4384 9342 4419 9342 4419 9376

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
353 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN SD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE A LITTLE EAST OF KFSD. TROUGHING EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW
ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS BLOSSOMED
OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS OVER SW MN IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION. 850-300MB THICKNESS WOULD INDICATE AN EASTERLY MOVEMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LAPS DCAPE VALUE ABOVE 1000J/KG. WILL
CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING
WITH CHANCE POPS UP TO THE TWIN CITIES. SOME STABILITY EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. DELAYED THE ONSET OF MORE
CONVECTION TONIGHT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WEST CENTRAL MN. SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA ON
FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS. MORE COMMOTION EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN PASSING ACROSS THE FA. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE FIELDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 30 DEG C AIR INTO SW MN. HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S FROM THE MSP ON SW.

LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LATEST GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL STAY COURSE WITH A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
LAST THREE GFS MODEL RUNS. THE LAST AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI
CHARTS ALSO SUGGESTS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
850 MB COLD ADVECTION ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO HAVE A COOLING INFLUENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MN...NONE.
.WI...NONE.

&&

RAH/WJH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-211100-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
358 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

JPR