Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 272107
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

MNC093-145-272130-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-050627T2130Z/
STEARNS MN-MEEKER MN-
407 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
MEEKER AND STEARNS COUNTIES...

AT 402 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WATKINS...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF LITCHFIELD...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ST NICHOLAS...ST AUGUSTA...
LUXEMBURG...WESTPORT...ROCKVILLE...PLEASANT LAKE AND KIMBALL.

LAT...LON 4526 9451 4521 9434 4530 9427 4545 9410
      4557 9439

$$

KAT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...
NICE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FIRING MAINLY JUST N OF CWA
ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH VORT AROUND AXN GIVING IT AN ASSIST.
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION HAVE
SUPPRESSED CONVECTION IN MUCH OF S MN.  HOWEVER STORMS DEVELOPING IN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN IA IN BAND OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
LIFT INTO S MN.  ALSO SEEING A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TC METRO AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF.  MAY STILL
SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST IN SW MN NEAR COLD FRONT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ONCE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF VORT WEAKENS. VERY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
HANDING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS.  BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES FOR S MN INTO WI ON TUESDAY.  GFS HOWEVER APPREARS
TOO WET WITH TOO STRONG OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AREA.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOR WED/THURSDAY AS WELL WITH NAM 6 TO 12
HOURS FASTER. GFS BRINGS ACROSS A STRONGER AND SLOWER UPPER TROF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.  WENT MORE WITH THE GFS TIMING
NOT BRINGING PRECP INTO EASTERN AREAS TIL AFTN.

&&

LONGER TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

RUNNING WITH THE DGEX DUE TO ETA/NAMS PLACEMENT OF CUT OFF LOW JUST
OFF SOUTHERN CA COAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO GREAT
LAKES REGION. MUCH OF EXTENDED LOOKED GOOD EXCEPT FOR DRY SAT
PERIOD. WITH POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND PROTRUDING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER MUCH OF CWA...DECIDED BETTER PART OF VALOR WAS TO INCLUDE
CHANCE T-STORMS THIS REGION FOR MAJORITY OF SAT. GOOD CHUNK OF FA IN
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 80KT JET MAX SAT/12Z-18Z. ISENTROPIC OMEGA IN THE
40 TO 50 RANGE...COUPLED WITH 10 TO 30 MB COND PRESSURE DEFICTS AT
THE 310K LEVEL SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED. DGEX THEN SPLITS SURFACE
FEATURE OVR DAKOTAS INTO TWO SYSTEMS...ONE OVR NORTHERN MN AND THE
OTHER OVR KANSAS BY 00Z MON. COLD FRONT PASSES MUCH OF AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY DURING DAY ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SUMMER 50H RIDGE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE BY TUES MORNING. RIDGE WILL BUILD DRAMATICALLY
INTO MID WEEK EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING DOWN PCPN CHANCES ACROSS FA
TUE-THU.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MN...NONE.
.WI...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
532 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-281100-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
532 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WOULD
GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT LITTLE FALLS TO
REDWOOD FALLS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE SEVERE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENTER PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY
WESTERN WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

JPR