Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 201537
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1034 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

MNC041-121-149-201615-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-050620T1615Z/
DOUGLAS MN-POPE MN-STEVENS MN-
1034 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR
STEVENS...POPE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

AT 1030 AM CDT...A SPOTTER REPORTED BRANCHES 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER 
WERE KNOCKED DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
EVANSVILLE...ON THE DOUGLAS GRANT COUNTY LINE.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EVANSVILLE TO 
DONNELLY AT 1033 AM...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CARLOS AND 
MORRIS.
 
LAT...LON 4644 9577 4552 9640 4542 9579 4549 9537
      4585 9527 4634 9513

$$
RJN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MN VCNTY SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO BEING
HELPED ALONG BY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH.  THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A VERY SLOW SAG SOUTH ALONG 1000-500 MB THICKNESS FIELD AND
COULD WORK INTO OUR CWA AROUND DAYBREAK.  A BIT OF A TROPICAL
CONNECTION SHOWN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA
WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE INTO MN.  SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG
INTO CENTRAL MN LATER TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.  RATHER HIGH SBCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG VINCINTY FRONT.
HOWEVER BEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAINLY ALONG CANADIAN BORDER IN
STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELD.  SURFACE WINDS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO QUITE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE WITH 30-40
PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS AND NAM ON TUESDAY WITH NAM SAGGING FRONT INTO S IA BY 00Z WED
AND GFS HOLDING IT NEAR MN/IA BORDER...WITH NEITHER MODEL HAVING
VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.  THUS...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE PRECIP MAX WILL BE.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THRU SOUTHERLY FLOW
ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY RETURNS LATE WED/THURS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
COMING THRU THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NW MN.  IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT...A SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY MAINLY NE CWA AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN WARMER AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

LONGER TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND UKMET AND ECMWF...AND
LOOKS PRETTY CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEAN. SPAGHETTI PLOTS NOT AVAILABLE
YET. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SOME HINT THAT MID LEVEL TEMPS MIGHT BE TOO WARM FOR PRECIP
ON THURSDAY BUT FRONT WILL BE IN AREA...AND LATE NIGHT MCS POSSIBLE
SO WILL HANG ON TO SMALL POPS IN EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY...BEFORE
WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE OVER ENTIRE AREA. UPPER TROUGH GOES BY
LATE FRIDAY...WITH NICE UPPER RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE NEXT
WEST COAST TROF TAKES SHAPE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MN...NONE.
.WI...NONE.

&&

PAULSON/KRAUSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
800 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

MNZ041-047>051-054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ023-024-211100-
ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-PIERCE-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-
WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
800 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MNZ042>045-052-053-WIZ014>016-025>028-211100-
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-PEPIN-POLK-RUSK-TODD-
800 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

RJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1002 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

MNZ041>042-201700-
DOUGLAS-TODD-
1002 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 503 TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN MINNESOTA THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA

TODD...

IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

DOUGLAS...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA AND LONG PRAIRIE.

MNZ047>048-201700-
POPE-STEVENS-
1002 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
503 IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN MINNESOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

POPE... STEVENS...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MORRIS AND GLENWOOD.