Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
425 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
100 KT H25 SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM BROWNSVILLE TX TO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. EMBEDDED WEAK IMPULSES MOVING IN WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTER OVER HOUSTON WITH PRESSURE DOWN TO 1002
MB SO FAR. /22

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. 18Z GFS TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...
WHICH COULD PUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
CURRENTLY ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST IS UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OUTLOOK...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT. AREA WILL LIKELY BE PLACED UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH BOX THIS EVENING. ENHANCED VERTICAL FORCING MAY RESULT
IN FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TONIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LOW TRACK.

CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT WITH GFS/ETA/NGM AT 100%...WITH RAIN MOVING
MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE-65 BY 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME MORNING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.

DRY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC OVERRUNNING
DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...BUT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
GULF WATERS. DELAYED ARRIVAL OF RAIN BY SIX HOURS INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT THE LIKELY CHANCE GOING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SETTING UP A GOOD COLD ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NO POPS DURING LATTER HALF OF EXTENDED FCST. /22

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AND BUILDING SEAS...AND ONLY HAD
TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WAVES AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER NEAR THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL END
BY NOON AS THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTH WIND WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. 05/22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY.
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
RH VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  61  33  58 / 100  30   0   0
PENSACOLA   59  64  35  58 / 100  50   0   0
DESTIN      59  65  40  57 / 100  70   0   0
EVERGREEN   53  56  30  56 / 100  50   0   0
WAYNESBORO  47  54  30  55 / 100  30   0   0
CAMDEN      52  53  31  55 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
MS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1250 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-151100-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
1250 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

FORECASTERS CONTINUE TO MONITOR A DEVELOPING AREA OF PRESSURE OVER
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.  THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND WILL MOVE INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA BY LATE EVENING.  SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
INLAND MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR MIDNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  STRONG...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS NEAR THE PATH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

OVER THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR INCREASING WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE WATERS
WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF
HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS IN AND NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY
THURSDAY MORNING...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.