Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...TEMPS PRETTY STRAIGHT
FORWARD...WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT AND TIMING THE BIGGEST BEAR.

CURRENTLY...NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS IS SEEING ZONAL FLOW WITH
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AT THIS TIME IS HELPING TO LIMIT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AT THIS TIME IS THE
BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW. STILL
GOES SOUNDER SHOWS ALTERNATING BANDS OF WETTER/DRIER AIR
(RELATIVELY) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH WET BAND STRETCHING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A DRY BAND RUNNING FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
PRECIP H20 REPORTS FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES THIS MORNING RANGED FROM
1.8-2.0 EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO 1.5-1.7 OVER THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF MISS NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ADVERTISING NORTHERN
GULF SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO WANDER NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING SOMEWHERE OVER THE VICINITY OF THE FA TUESDAY...WITH A
CLOSED SYSTEM PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
CREATES A SHALLOW TROUGH EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THIS SHALLOW
TROUGH MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ADVERTISING SLUG OF MOIST AIR FOLLOWING NORTHERN GULF SHORTWAVE
WESTWARD TO VARYING DEGREES.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE DEVILS IN THE DETAILS...WITH GFS MUCH WETTER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THAN THE ETA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE GFS
HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...RIGHT OVER THE FA. FOR
THIS REASON...USED THE ETA FOR A BEGINNING FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. FROM THERE...TRENDED BACK TO THE GFS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHERN CLOSED SYSTEM
TRIES TO DIVE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE SWINGING EASTWARD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SEE NO REASON TO
ARGUE AT THIS POINT. FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A A GENERAL DAILY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN AN UPWARD
TRANS IN PRECIP COVERAGE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH A LIGHT VARIABLE FLOW AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS...BUT
WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  93  75  91  75 /  40  60  10  40  10
PENSACOLA   77  92  77  92  77 /  40  60  10  40  10
DESTIN      78  90  78  90  78 /  40  50  10  40  10
EVERGREEN   74  91  72  92  73 /  40  50  10  50  10
WAYNESBORO  72  95  73  92  72 /  30  60  10  50  10
CAMDEN      75  94  74  92  74 /  30  50  10  50  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-151700-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
500 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREA BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE WATERSPOUT THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHTNING THREAT
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OR STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
114 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

FLZ005-006-151900-
COASTAL OKALOOSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRESTVIEW...
116 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY...

AT 114 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES WEST OF AUBURN...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
CRESTVIEW...MILLIGAN AND BAKER THROUGH 200 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER AROUND LOW LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A
SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
239 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

ALZ060-152030-
COVINGTON-
239 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER COVINGTON COUNTY...

AT 238 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER ONYCHA...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...GREEN BAY AND
WATKINS BRIDGE THROUGH 330 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
326 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

ALZ064-152130-
LOWER BALDWIN-
326 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER SOUTHERN BALDWIN
COUNTY...

AT 324 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF ELSANOR TO 2 MILES NORTH OF
ORANGE BEACH...AND MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
MIFLIN...ROMAR BEACH...FOLEY AND SUMMERDALE THROUGH 430 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.