Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 211926
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
223 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

ALC129-211945-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0222.000000T0000Z-050721T1945Z/
WASHINGTON AL-
223 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 215 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THIS CLUSTER OF    
THUNDERSTORMS WAS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND CAUSING STREET 
FLOODING IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 
MPH. RADAR ESTIMATE OF HOURLY RAINFALL IS UP TO 3 INCHES PER 
HOUR...AND SINCE THE STORM IS MOVING SO SLOWLY...MORE FLOODING IS 
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAWTHORN...OR 
ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHATOM. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SLOWLY 
SOUTHWEST.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SUNFLOWER...TOINETTE...8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CORTELYOU AND 8 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF WAGARVILLE BY 245 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3133 8795 3149 8802 3141 8829 3121 8818

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STEAMY SUMMER FORECAST IN THE WORKS...WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES A POSSIBLE PROBLEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY...THOUGH...UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
US...WITH RIDGE-LINES STRETCHING EAST AND WEST. ONE COULD SAY MOST
OF THE CONUS WAS UNDER THIS RIDGE. A FEW WIGGLES ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY THROUGH THE FLOW...WITH ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN SOUTHEAST CONUS. ALSO HAVE ANOTHER WIGGLE
WORKING ITS WAY WEST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MX. LITTLE
REFLECTION OF THIS LATTER WIGGLE...SO DONT BELIEVE IT IS A TROPICAL
WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS. AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
REPORTING 1.8 TO 2.1 OF PRECIP H20. THERE IS A DRY SLUG...THOUGH
RUNNING FROM ALONG THE CAROLINA SEABOARD...TOT HE CENTRAL GULF OF
MX. KJAX IS THE ONLY UPPER AIR STATION CATCHING THINS DRY
SLOT...REPORTING PRECIP H20 AMOUNTS NEAT 1.5. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOW THAT THE GULF OF MX END OF THIS DRY SLUG IS WORKING ITS WAY
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST WV/IR LOOPS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WEAK BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER SEABREEZE CIRCULATION OVER FL
TRACKING WEST OVER THE NE GULF GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOSTLY OFFSHORE SOUTH OF AQQ. OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL
GULF STATES DEEP RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BEST MOISTURE POOLED
OVER WEST CENTRAL AL STRETCHING SW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MS. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS NOTED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWFA GIVING WAY
TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF
CWFA LATE THIS EVENING. WITH THIS DEEPER MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY TODAY WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
AS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION...AND SOUTH OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. BELIEVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION/BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF THE NWFL AND COASTAL AL GIVING WAY TO BETTER
COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH THIS THE BEST GUESS FOR HEAVY
PRECIP TODAY WILL BEGIN WELL INLAND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
COAST. OTHER SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATED QUICKLY AS INLAND AREAS HEAT UP. TWEAKED
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS A TAD FOR TODAY BASICALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV AND FWC GUIDANCE. CURRENT MINS LOOK CLOSE FOR TONIGHT.
/32

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ADVERTISING A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ( A
BIT FARTHER EAST FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS) THROUGH FRIDAY....WITH
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING AND SHARPENING IN RESPONSE. ANOTHER SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THEN FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND HELP TO GIVE IT A
NUDGE EAST. THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
BY MONDAY MORN. A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES...THEN SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS GETS SHOVED SOUTH TO OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MX. AS UPPER SHORTWAVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY MOVE WEST...GUIDANCE PUTS THE FA BACK INTO A DAILY
AFTERNOON SCATTERED/EVENING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PATTERN. THE NUMBERS
ARE A BIT HIGH THAN YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS. QUESTION IS...WILL THE DRY
SLUGS WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE AND LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE. MODELS SAY
NO...AND AM TAKING A WAIT AND SEE...TAKE IT A DAY AT A TIME IN
DEALING WITH THESE DRY POCKETS.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD VEER MOSTLY SOUTH
LATER TODAY AS CONVECTION FIRES ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE FRONT.
WITH THIS SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS COULD BECOME
BREEZY AT TIMES MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS 20 TO
30 KNOTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATER IN THE PD
HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL HELP GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM...HUMID WITH A LIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  75  92  76  93 /  60  40  60  20  50
PENSACOLA   91  76  91  78  92 /  50  40  60  20  40
DESTIN      89  78  90  79  90 /  40  30  60  20  40
EVERGREEN   92  73  93  73  94 /  60  50  70  20  50
WAYNESBORO  92  73  94  73  96 /  70  50  60  20  40
CAMDEN      91  73  94  73  95 /  70  50  60  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

16/32
MILLER/ESBENSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-211700-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
530 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME STORMS WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND STRONG OUT
GOING TIDES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
EACH DAY...WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND AND HELP PUSH DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. THE RESULTING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING DAYTIME HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OR STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE
NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.