Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
312 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH...DRAPED EAST-WEST NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...WARM AND MUGGY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TWO INCHES OR
MORE WITH AN H5 TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...HANGS AROUND AS A WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN H5 HIGH CENTERS
CONTINUES EAST AND WEST OF REGION. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW FORECAST
AREA ON THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR BUT ALSO SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. 03/00Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALSO. THE GFS MOS POPS FOR
TODAY ARE AROUND 70 PERCENT...WILL HAVE SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING
BECOMING LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY JUST A BIT DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. /11

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. THE LATEST GFS...UKMET...NAM...GEM MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM ADVANCES
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE GULF. THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WEST OF
88W. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD COME UP IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF LOUISIANA. MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE COULD IMPACT MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH HEAVIER RAINS WEST INTO LOUISIANA. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS CRITICAL TO WHERE THIS
FEATURE TRACKS AND REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST COULD BE NECESSARY.
STAY TUNED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE...REFER
TO PRODUCTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. HEADING INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WILL CALL FOR DIURNAL TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.
MAXES A BIT LOWER DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY...OTHERWISE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK. LOOKS AS IF UPPER HIGH DRIFTING WEST ACROSS FLORIDA THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK WILL MOVE WAVE OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST GULF
AND HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON MARINE WINDS. GUIDANCE HAS 15 TO 25
KNOT WINDS AT 42040 ON TUESDAY BUT FORECAST WILL KEEP IT CLOSER TO
15 KNOTS AND BREAK THE MARINE GRIDS OUT IN NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
GROUPS. SYSTEM DOES BEAR WATCHING HOWEVER AND CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED.
/11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DAYTIME RH REMAINS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL...ALONG WITH
MODERATE CHANCES OF WET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  74  91  76 /  70  30  50  30
PENSACOLA   86  77  89  77 /  70  30  50  30
DESTIN      86  78  88  78 /  70  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   88  72  90  72 /  60  20  50  20
WAYNESBORO  88  73  93  73 /  60  20  50  20
CAMDEN      90  73  93  73 /  60  20  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-031900-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
723 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG BY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STROKES.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.