Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

.SYNOPSIS...SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING IN 20-25 KNOT
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD CONUS.  THESE
IMPULSES ARE REFLECTED IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...OTHERWISE NO EYE
CATCHING FEATURES NOTED.  PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL STAND AROUND 1.8
TO 2 INCHES (125 TO 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL) ACROSS THE REGION.  LARGE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORFOLK VA TO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S SOUTH OF FRONT WHERE SEVERAL RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN.  REGIONAL RADARS DETECTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN HIGHER CAPE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ON IR IMAGERY SOUTH OF CUBA ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...BOTH THE ETA AND GFS MODELS AGREE IN MOVING H50 HIGH
PRESSURE WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY...WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF.  AS A
RESULT...A MEAN H85-H30 SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF.  GFS HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING FROM THE CURRENT 2
INCHES TO 2.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY.  AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT SAGS SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BECOMES
MORE DOMINATE BY MONDAY...WITH THE ETA AND UKMET MODELS BRINGING THE
EASTERLY WAVE WEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN AND THEN NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS ARE USUALLY NOT MUCH OF A FORECAST PROBLEM
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES SIMILAR WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS.  WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE FIRST FIVE PERIODS.  GFS HAS AREAS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME I WILL NOT
PUSH THE ENVELOPE.  THE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT MUTICELL CLUSTERS OR ISOLATED PULSE TYPE STORMS
THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.  MAIN THREATS TO THOSE ENJOYING THE
OUTDOORS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN...AND WET MICROBURST WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND RAIN
CHANCES BEYOND THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE...AND INFLUENCES OF TROPICAL WAVE POSSIBLY TO OUR WEST.
INHERITED A GOOD EXTENDED PACKAGE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED
EXCEPT FOR MINOR TWEAKS IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF STALLING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.  A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RESUME ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. A WELL ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE BY
NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEED AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE WESTERN MARINE
AREA DUE TO STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS BROUGHT BY AN EASTERLY
WAVE APPROACHING WESTERN LOUISIANA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 77/22

&&

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  91  76  91 /  30  40  30  40
PENSACOLA   76  90  78  90 /  40  40  30  40
DESTIN      78  89  78  88 /  40  40  30  40
EVERGREEN   71  91  72  92 /  30  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  71  92  73  93 /  20  40  20  40
CAMDEN      71  92  73  93 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

PURDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-021900-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND BY LATE MORNING. OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NUMEROUS AT TIMES BY THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
317 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-030230-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
330 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

AT 320 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM HAS HELD TOGETHER FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS AND
CONDITIONS ARE NOW FAVORABLE FOR IT TO CONTINUE INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AT ITS
CURRENT SPEED AND HEADING...ARRIVAL IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WOULD BE
THIS EVENING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PROGRESSING EAST OF
I-65 WITHIN AN HOUR OF ARRIVAL. ALL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO PLAN FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER. SINCE THIS MORNING THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PROGRESSIVELY ISSUED TWO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES...AND THE LATEST WATCH NOW LIES JUST WEST OF A
LINE FROM OFFSHORE NEAR BAY SAINT LOUIS TO HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI.
ALL INTERESTS SHOULD BE LISTENING FOR ANY FUTURE WATCHES MADE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.