Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

.SYNOPSIS...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LOOSES ITS PUSH AND STALLS NEAR
OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ON
THE FRONT BY SUNDAY AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY)...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT STORMS IN THE ARKLATEX NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWS UP WELL ON AFTERNOON
VISIBLE IMAGERY...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
NORTHWEST TN AND NORTHERN AR. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS ALSO MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND FLORIDA. EXPECT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE HELP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AS STORMS ARE ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN MS
AND CENTRAL AL. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR AND HIGH PW AND CAPES RUNNING NEAR 2500
J/KG...IDEAL FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WARM
AIR ALOFT ( 8 TO 9C AT 700 MB AND -3C AT 500 MB) AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW ARE KEEPING STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
COVERAGES IN TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUED TO DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLY CONTINUING WELL AFTER SUNSET DUE TO CONTINUED CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARIES IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
WET MICROBURSTS AS DRY AIR ALOFT LINGERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER MUGGY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
AREA COMBINES WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED COVERAGES ON SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT SATURDAY COVERAGES TO
BE MAINLY AFTERNOON...ALMOST LIKE TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ACTS TO IGNITE THE
LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE
TEMPS WERE VERY SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THRU FRIDAY)...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES BUILD BACK TO THE WEST. THIS COULD POSSIBLY
LEAD TO A GRADIENT OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
PROMOTING INLAND PENETRATION OF THE SEABREEZE...WILL KEEP ABOVE
AVERAGE POPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOONER ANY
FESTIVITIES ON YOUR INDEPENDENCE DAY CAN BE COMPLETED THE
BETTER...AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL IN
NATURE...BEGINNING OFFSHORE IN THE MORNINGS AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS INLAND AREAS DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR THE SEABREEZE CAN MAKE IT INLAND ALONG WITH ANY OTHER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES IN PLACE FROM THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. BY MIDWEEK...ALL
GLOBAL MODEL SHOW A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST AND A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMERTIME
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PUSHES ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
DISTURBED NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE EXTENDED AND THEN TAILED THEM BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AS MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED AND THESE NUMBERS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING
THE COAST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS MOBILE BAY AND THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS AND DISSIPATES. A WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THEN TURN BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REALIGN ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MID WEEK...BRINGING A
MORE ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET...BUT COULD BE HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WARRANT NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  91  75  90 /  30  40  30  60
PENSACOLA   77  91  76  89 /  30  40  30  60
DESTIN      78  90  77  88 /  30  40  30  60
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  91 /  30  50  30  60
WAYNESBORO  73  91  73  91 /  30  50  30  50
CAMDEN      73  93  73  92 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

13/CULLEN
22/PURDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-020300-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SEND A RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND SUBSTANTIALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE DOWNBURST WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY PERIODS OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.