Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TNT AND THU)...SYNOPTICALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE. REGION
REMAINS ON WRN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA RIDGE. SFC HIGH IS ORIENTED SUCH
THAT E-SE SFC WINDS WILL CONT TO PUMP IN HIGH ABSOLUTE VALUES OF MOISTURE
INTO AREA.  ON-GOING THUNDER VERY SIMILAR TO PATTERN PAST TWO DAYS
WHEREBY THE OUTFLOWS MOVG INLAND WILL CONT TO FORCE NEW CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.  WILL LEAVE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY HIER
INLAND THIS EVENING. DO EXPECT PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
CONT OVER GULF WATERS AS LAND BREEZE FORMS AND THAT PORTION BEGINS TO
RESPOND TO FORCING ASSOC W/GULF SFC LOW. PATTERN IS SUCH THAT HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM 86-90F FOR MAX TEMPS RANGING TO 69-74F FOR MIN
TEMPS.TRENDED TOWARDS MET MOS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MAV MOS INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THU NITE THROUGH WED)...ALL EYES ON SRN GLFMEX AND
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW TO AFFECT US THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY AWAITING
USAF RECON REPORT. IN ANY EVENT...SYNOPTICS ARE SUCH THAT OUR REGION
WILL COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING E-SE SFC WINDS ON FRI AND
ENDURING THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DECENT RAINS
BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

AT THIS POINT IN TIME...WE ARE WAITING TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF POTENTIAL GLFMEX SFC LOW.  DUE TO EXPECTED PCPN
... HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND RAISED MIN TEMPS BOTH SATSUN.
ALSO...HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO MON-WED PORTION OF PACKAGE AS FOCUS IS ON MID-
RANGE./23

&&

.MARINE....HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S INTO THE EASTERN
GULF BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH CARIBBEAN SYSTEM
STARTING TO APPROACH THE MARINE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING MORE
CONTINUITY THIS PACKAGE...WHICH RAISES FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING CYCLONE CLOSING IN ON THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY. WITH MARINE ZONES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASING...HIGHER IN SQUALLS. FORECAST TIDAL RANGES SATURDAY
INDICATE 1.2 TO 1.6 FEET BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW TIDE...WITH HIGH TIDES
OCCURRING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...WATER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PILING THROUGH THE DAY ON EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES AND INLAND WATERWAYS LATE FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. THUS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS  SURFACING EARLY ON IN THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...WILL MENTION TIDES ABOVE NORMAL THIS PACKAGE AND LET NEXT
SHIFT FINE-TUNE THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT AS EVENT WINDOW GETS WITHIN
36 HOURS. STAY TUNED. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  90  73  87 /  30  40  20  50
PENSACOLA   74  88  74  86 /  30  40  20  50
DESTIN      76  87  76  85 /  30  40  20  50
EVERGREEN   69  89  71  87 /  30  40  20  50
WAYNESBORO  69  90  70  89 /  30  40  20  50
CAMDEN      70  90  71  89 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-091130-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
500 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

ALTHOUGH HIGH TIDAL RANGES ARE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...OUTGOING TIDES ARE NONETHELESS CONTRIBUTING TO RIP CURRENT
RISK. AS WELL...LONG WAVE PERIODS WILL CONTINUE. THIS WOULD BRING A
MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE SURF
ZONE.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY IS
LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE WEEKEND OVER THE AREA BEACHES. THIS WILL CAUSE WAVE PERIODS TO
INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AND SENDS OUT SWELL
TO THE GULF COAST. THESE WOULD BRING TIDES OR 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL PLUS A FURTHER INCREASE IN RIP CURRENT RISK. A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED LATER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
105 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

ALZ059-FLZ001-003>006-081900-
ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREWTON...
105 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA
AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 105 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANOE TO 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALLIVER...AND MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESES STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...LITTLE
ROCK...GALLIVER...MUNSON...POLLARD...KEEGO...FOSHEE AND MCLELLAN
THROUGH 200 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER AROUND LOW LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A
SAFE CROSSING.