Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

.SHORT TERM...HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH 155 WHICH
EXPIRED AT 04 UTC (11 PM CDT). THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS FORECAST AREA IS OUT AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
STATES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL AS STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEPOSIT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL ZONES.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT GMZ630-650-670.
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL ZONES.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT GMZ655-675.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL ZONES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
835 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121100-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
835 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD...AND ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CONTINUED FLOOD FOR THOSE
RIVERS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING FOR OTHER RIVERS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. WITH
RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IT WILL NOT TAKE A LONG PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO
RESULT IN RAPID FLOODING OF CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVER SYSTEMS AS WELL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS POSING A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE HAS POSTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THESE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES TONIGHT. SWIMMING IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. REMEMBER TO HEED
ANY WARNING OR ADVISORY FLAGS POSTED ALONG AREA BEACHES.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECAST INFORMATION
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1119 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

FLZ002-004-120445-
COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENSACOLA...
1119 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA AND SANTA
ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 1114 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF FORT PICKENS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
GULF BREEZE...WARRINGTON...PENSACOLA BEACH...PENSACOLA...ORIOLE BEACH
AND EAST PENSACOLA HEIGHTS THROUGH 1145 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.