Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Melbourne, FL

May 4, 2005Volusia County, Florida

NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 4, 2005, 7:57 AM EDT for Volusia County, Florida. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 4, 2005, 7:57 AM EDT (11:57 UTC)
Expired
May 4, 2005, 8:45 AM EDT
In force
48 min
Issued by
NWS Melbourne, FL
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Volusia County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 00:00Z, 12.0 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 00:00Z on 2005-05-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 00:00Z on 2005-05-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -48 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1956 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
16 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KMLB 041153
SVRMLB
FLC127-041245-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0041.050504T1157Z-050504T1245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
757 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUTH DAYTONA...PORT ORANGE...PONCE
  INLET...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...DE LEON SPRINGS...DE LAND...DAYTONA
  BEACH

* UNTIL 845 AM EDT

* AT 752 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DE LAND...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DAYTONA BEACH INTL SPEEDWAY AND DAYTONA BEACH SPEEDWAY BY 820 AM
  EDT
  PORT ORANGE AND SOUTH DAYTONA BY 825 AM EDT
  7 MILES SOUTH OF DAYTONA BEACH BY 830 AM EDT
  WILBUR BY THE SEA...PONCE INLET AND 7 MILES NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA
  BEACH BY 835 AM EDT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 2912 8142 2895 8138 2905 8072 2929 8078

$$

CRISTALDI
2 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS52 KMLB 041213
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
816 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

FLC127-041245-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-050504T1245Z/
VOLUSIA FL-
816 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 845 AM EDT FOR
NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 809 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR DAYTONA HIGHRIDGE ESTATES...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF DE LAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DAYTONA BEACH SPEEDWAY AND SPRUCE CREEK BY 825 AM EDT
  SOUTH DAYTONA AND PORT ORANGE BY 830 AM EDT
  DAYTONA BEACH AND ALLANDALE BY 835 AM EDT
  WILBUR BY THE SEA BY 840 AM EDT

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 2912 8142 2895 8138 2905 8072 2929 8078

$$

CRISTALDI
000 
WWUS52 KMLB 041230
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
834 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

FLC127-041245-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-050504T1245Z/
VOLUSIA FL-
834 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 845 AM EDT FOR
NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 831 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR DAYTONA BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AT DAYTONA BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND DAYTONA BEACH.

AT 832 AM...AN EMBRY RIDDLE STUDENT REPORTED PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL
AND ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS. 

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2912 8142 2895 8138 2905 8072 2929 8078

$$

15

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 4, 3:05 AM EDT, 4 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 4, 3:05 AM EDT, 4 hours 52 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...A WET COUPLE DAYS COMING UP WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...

MODEL OF CHOICE WILL BE GFS FOR FRONTAL BDRY POSN...ALBEIT WITH A
WEAKER SFC SOLN...RESULTING IN WINDS NOT BEING NEARLY AS STRONG OVER
THE ATLC.

CURRENTLY...A SULTRY MORNING IS IN PROGRESS AREAWIDE WITH MAIONLY
L70S TEMPS (SOME U60S NORTH). SFC OBS/ADAS ANLYS INDICATE THAT HUNG
UP FRONTAL BDRY IS STILL EITHER NEAR OR SOUTH OF LAKE OKEE. RECENT
REGNERATION OF CONVECTIVE ECHOES ACROSS THE NRN CWA IS A RESULT OF
STRONG H25 JET FORCING COUPLED WITH AN ALMOST SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS
IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH MEAN PWAT AIR WILL OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF THE
CWA TODAY AS STRONG H25 DIVG SITS ATOP CTRL FL. ADD IN THE HIGH SUN
ANGLE OF EARLY MAY...AND WITH SUCH A COMBINATION PLACE...IT WONT
TAKE LONG AT ALL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. DONT SEE A REASON
WHY ANY AREAS WOULD GET LEFT OUT OF THE ACTION TODAY...AND AS SUCH
HAVE RUNG UP A 90 POP AREAWIDE TODAY WITH LIKELY POPS CONTINUING
TONIGHT (MAINLY BEFORE 06Z) AS RESIDUAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
TAKE A WHILE TO GET USED UP.

W/R/T STRONG/SVR POTENTIAL...H50 TEMPS WILL AVG -11/-12C...PRETTY
SIMILAR TO TUE. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN LOW-MOD LOCAL THREATS FOR HAIL
AND WIND (WITH HAIL THE MORE SIG SVR THREAT) IN THE (G)HWO SUITE...
WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPORARY FLOODING FROM STORMS AS WELL.

THU-FRI...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
TAP INTO ANTECEDENT SURFACE MOISTURE AND INTERACT WITH THE ADVANCING
TROUGH AXIS. SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 500 MB TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -14C WILL PROMOTE HAIL DEVELOPMENT AND STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
PENINSULA. RESIDUAL MOISURE MAY RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
FRIDAY BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS.

SAT-TUE...STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH
OF COCOA BEACH FROM SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEG BY THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN LOCALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT...SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AND THEN BUILD AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  68  78  64 /  90  60  50  40
MCO  83  65  82  64 /  90  60  50  40
MLB  81  69  82  66 /  90  60  60  50
VRB  82  68  83  68 /  90  60  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT-TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG-TERM...HIRSCH
Hazardous weather outlook, May 4, 6:30 AM EDT, 1 hour 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
630 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
051000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
630 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WITH SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT FROM
STRONG JET STREAM WINDS...AND THE HIGH MAY SUN ANGLE...WILL LEAD TO
RAPID FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
COOLER THAN AVERAGE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE
STORMS TO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OR A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

OF COURSE...ANY FLORIDA LIGHTNING STORM CAN BE A KILLER...SO YOU
SHOULD ALWAYS SEEK SHELTER WELL IN ADVANCE OF STORMS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE COMMON
IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
TEMPORARY INUNDATION OF SOME ROADS AND LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
AREAS. REMEMBER NOT TO DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND
THEN OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...
LOCALLY CONFUSED SEAS...AND POSSIBLE EVEN A WATERSPOUT...MAY
ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
A DRIER AIR MASS PUSHES INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

CRISTALDI

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 4, 6:20 AM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
620 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

FLZ046-041100-
SEMINOLE-
620 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

...COMPACT...INTENSE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL OVER
SEMINOLE COUNTY...

AT 617 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL OVER MAITLAND AND FERN PARK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL HAIL
INCLUDE WINTER SPRINGS...GENEVA AND MIDWAY.

CRISTALDI
Special weather statement, May 4, 7:54 AM EDT, 3 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
754 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

FLZ041-141-041245-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
754 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2005

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 747 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DE LEON SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE DAYTONA BEACH...ORANGE CITY...AND PONCE INLET.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

CRISTALDI

The office that day

Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 4, 6:40 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMLB95 min
May 4, 8:10 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMLB95 min
May 4, 8:19 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMLB116 min
May 4, 9:44 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMLB61 min
May 4, 9:50 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBLake56 min
May 4, 11:13 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMLB62 min
May 4, 12:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMLBVolusia40 min
May 4, 12:37 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMLB113 min
May 4, 12:40 PM EDTTornado WarningMLBVolusia35 min
May 4, 4:27 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMLB63 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2005Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.