Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Melbourne, FL

April 7, 2005Brevard County, Florida

NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 7, 2005, 6:35 PM EDT for Brevard County, Florida. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 7, 2005, 6:35 PM EDT (22:35 UTC)
Expired: Apr 7, 2005, 7:15 PM EDT
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Melbourne, FL
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Brevard County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 7, 5:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 31 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -253 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1011 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 237 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 309 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KMLB 072236
SVRMLB
FLC009-072315-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0031.050407T2235Z-050407T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
635 PM EDT THU APR 7 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TITUSVILLE AIRPORT...TITUSVILLE...
  PLAYALINDA BEACH

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 633 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF TITUSVILLE...OR ABOUT OVER CHRISTMAS...AND MOVING EAST
  AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TITUSVILLE AND TITUSVILLE AIRPORT BY 645 PM EDT
  MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE AND KENNEDY SPACE CENTER BY 700 PM
  EDT
  8 MILES SOUTH OF KLONDIKE BEACH BY 705 PM EDT
  PLAYALINDA BEACH BY 710 PM EDT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE 
NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO 
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY 
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 2858 8106 2841 8099 2858 8035 2881 8044

$$

JP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 7, 2:36 PM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 7, 2:36 PM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
236 PM EDT THU APR 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LATEST RADAR LOOPS WERE SHOWING TWO
LINES OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN/NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE BOTTOM
PORTION LINE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHOWS APPARENT STRENGTHENING
TREND LAST SEVERAL TAMPA RADAR SWEEPS. SECOND LINE LINE OF STORMS
WAS DEVELOPING ABOUT 100 MILES BEHIND THE LEADING BAND OF STORMS
OVER THE BIG BEND/EASTERN GULF. LATEST RUC40 UPDATE SHOWED
STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/INCREASING UPR DIVERGENCE
...COLD POCKET OF AIR AT 500MB OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THESE PARAMETERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING KEEPING THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT/DIV Q THROUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL COLUMN SHOULD THEN
MAINTAIN HIGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
ORLANDO-CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD WHEN TAKING
INTO CONSIDERATION ANY RAIN COOLED AIR FROM STORM DOWNDRAFTS.

FRI...BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
IN THE DAY THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BEFORE NOON.  DRYING
WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRIVING
THE DEEP CONVECTION.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
TO AROUND AN INCH.  DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW HOWEVER WILL LEAD TO
DESTABILIZATION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING.  LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD HOLD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO SCATTERED...WITH AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY HAVING THE MOST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH WHERE
MINUS 14-15 DEGREE 500 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED.  COULD SEE A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING HAIL IF INCREASING APRIL SUN ANGLE DOES ITS THING AND
PRODUCES ENOUGH INSTABILITY.

SAT...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE DAY
SO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRYING.  STILL COULD BE SOME
LOW CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS.

SUN-MON...SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SWING WINDS TO
ONSHORE BUT RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE LIMITED SO CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

TUE-THU...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT IN NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE CURRENT ONE.  HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE AND A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WED.  WITH TIMING/STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES...SOME
ACTIVITY COULD COME IN AS EARLY AS LATE TUE THOUGH.  ALSO IF SYSTEM
STAYS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH...THERE WILL BE LIMITED DRYING THU SO
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THEN.

&&

.MARINE...ADVISORY TONIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY FRI AS WEST WINDS WORK IN BEHIND WEAKENING COLD FRONT
AND GRADIENT DECREASES.  OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE SAT THEN A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND IT RETURNING THE FLOW TO ONSHORE BY SUN
NIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TUE AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  78  58  77 /  80  30   0   0
MCO  64  80  59  78 /  70  30   0   0
MLB  66  80  60  78 /  70  30   0   0
VRB  68  81  59  78 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 137 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 7 PM FOR
LAKE/ORANGE/SEMINOLE/VOLUSIA.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM ALL COUNTIES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.

&&

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 7, 6:00 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR WATCH #138
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 PM EDT THU APR 7 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
080400-
BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
SAINT LUCIE-VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM-
600 PM EDT THU APR 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #138 IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE STORM SYSTEM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER RECENT DAYS WILL IMPACT FLORIDA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER
IN MARION COUNTY...WHERE 70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND ONE INCH HAIL WERE
REPORTED.

BY EARLY EVENING...THE STRONG SQUALL LINE HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH
VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES. THIS LINE EXTENDED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LINE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF
I-4 BY THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CAPE CANAVERAL AND THE ORLANDO METRO AREA...MAINLY AFTER 600 PM.

SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR BRIEF
TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. A MODERATE THREAT WILL
EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...AND A LOW THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL THEN IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE
CANAVERAL FROM MID EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
AS THE LINE MOVES FARTHER SOUTH...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PASSING
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING NORTH
OF A LINE FROM ABOUT LAKE KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 MPH WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH
AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE. BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES ARE ADVISED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
BOATERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ORGANIZED STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF COCOA
BEACH.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET WILL OCCUR IN
ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MARINE INTERESTS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE A STRONG NORTHWARD FLOWING CURRENT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SWIMMERS ENTERING THE SURF TODAY SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR THIS SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
TODAY. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

BRAGAW

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 7, 5:41 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
541 PM EDT THU APR 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             LADY LAKE               28.93N 81.93W
04/07/2005  0.25 INCH        LAKE               FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SE LADY LAKE. ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL IN VOLUSIA COUNTY AT 1
            MILE EAST OF I95 AND HWY 40

&&

MRT

Local storm report, Apr 7, 5:52 PM EDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
552 PM EDT THU APR 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             5 SW ORMOND BY THE SEA  29.29N 81.13W
04/07/2005  0.75 INCH        VOLUSIA            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL FROM 510 TO 520 PM.

&&

MRT

Local storm report, Apr 7, 6:08 PM EDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
608 PM EDT THU APR 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             PORT ORANGE             29.12N 81.03W
04/07/2005  0.25 INCH        VOLUSIA            FL   AMATEUR RADIO

            CLYDE MORRIS BLVD AND I95 EXIT 256

&&

MRT

Local storm report, Apr 7, 6:12 PM EDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
612 PM EDT THU APR 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL A 28.43N 81.32W
04/07/2005  1.00 INCH        ORANGE             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            METEOROLOGIST AT OIA REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE

&&

MRT

Local storm report, Apr 7, 6:34 PM EDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
634 PM EDT THU APR 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             15 E ORLANDO            28.50N 81.13W
04/07/2005  0.50 INCH        ORANGE             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WEDGEFIELD SUBDIVISION SR520 AND HWY 50 IN EASTERN ORANGE

&&

MRT

Local storm report, Apr 7, 6:35 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
635 PM EDT THU APR 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             ORMOND BEACH            29.28N 81.06W
04/07/2005  0.75 INCH        VOLUSIA            FL   PUBLIC

&&

MRT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 7, 4:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MLB	Lake, Volusia	57 min
Apr 7, 4:27 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MLB		2 hr
Apr 7, 5:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MLB	Volusia	62 min
Apr 7, 5:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MLB	Lake	62 min
Apr 7, 6:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MLB	Orange	51 min
Apr 7, 6:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MLB	Volusia	43 min
Apr 7, 6:29 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	MLB		2 hr
Apr 7, 6:43 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	MLB	Brevard	40 min
Apr 7, 7:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MLB	Brevard	67 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.