Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 251943
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLC009-252000-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-050325T2000Z/
BREVARD FL-
241 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 300 PM EST FOR
BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 240 PM EST...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 
MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF VIERA. THE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 
25 MPH AND WILL MOVE ACROSS VIERA AND THE COCOA BEACH AND PATRICK 
AFD AREAS THROUGH 330 PM. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE APPROACH 
OF THIS STORM AND HEAD INDOORS. 

OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE MELBOURNE AND 
CAPE CANAVERAL AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. 

LAT...LON 2878 8099 2856 8094 2801 8086 2803 8028
      2871 7925 2907 7929

$$

BCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
148 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM...
...SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...

A VERY SOUPY ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR COUPLED WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
DUE TO A 250MB JET MAX MOVING OVERHEAD IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERITY OF THE STORMS IS ENHANCED BY DRY AIR
IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE AND REPORTS OF 3/4 INCH OR LARGER HAIL OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA ARE VERIFYING THIS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
TORNADIC ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL START EVENING WITH 50
POP NORTH LOWERING TO 30 SOUTH...THEN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF VORTICITY
MAXIMA AND JET STREAM DIVERGENCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY...FNTL BNDRY WILL HAVE SAGGED INTO CENTRAL FL...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NRN CTYS. FNTL BNDRY IN ADDITION TO RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
BNDRYS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ONGOING CONVECTION IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG AND N OF BNDRY DURING THE MONING. CWA WILL ALL BE BACK IN THE
WRM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STG TO SVR STORMS
THROUGH  THE AFTN. SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SEEMS A LTTLE LESS LIKELY WITH
THIS MDL RUN AS WNDS INC ABV THE DECK QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF SHRT WV.

SUNDAY/MONDAY....WRM FNT WILL BE WELL N OF FCST AREA WITH AN INC SSW
FLOW. EXPECT OVERALL LESS CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AS FCST AREA
WILL BE FULLY IN WRM SECTOR W/ ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE BNDRYS. EXPECT
A VERY WRM DAY.

STRONG SHRT WAVE BECOMING NEG TILT WILL PIVOT THRU THE LOWER MISS
RVR VLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PUSHING A PRE-FNTL SQUALL LINE THRU
FCST AREA EARLY MONDAY. 130KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE STG UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH JET POSTION FAVORING STG VENTILATION ON SOUTH END OF
CONVECTIVE LINE. LOW LVL WND FILEDS SUPPORT STRONG LINEAR
CONVECTION...HOWEVER DEVELOPING NEG TILT TO SHRT WV MAY ALLOW SFC WV
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF THIS HAPPENS THAT ADDITIONAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PROVIDED FOR STORM STRUCTURE.

FNT CLEARS AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF CAA
BEFORE RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO AREA FM THE GULF ON TUESDAY.

WED THRU FRI...PROGRESSIVE PTRN WILL SLIDE SFC HIGH EAST ACROSS FCST
AREA WED AND OFF THE COAST BY THE EVE. NEXT UPSTREAM SHRT WAVE IN
ENERGETIC PTRN SWINGS THRU THE LOWER MISS VLY BY THUR WITH INC S
FLOW AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA. NEXT FNT NOW FCST TO MOVE
THRU AREA ON FRI. PAST GFS RUN WAS HOLDING THIS BACK BUT HAS BEEN
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS RUN. WILL ADD MINIMAL POP TO THIS PD.

&&

.MARINE...
SVR CONVECTION OVER NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH FNTL BNDRY
STALLING OVER NRN WATERS OVER NIGHT. BNDRY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS TNT AND INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF
CD FNT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  81  68  84 /  30  50  30  40
MCO  69  83  69  86 /  30  50  30  40
MLB  68  82  70  85 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  70  83  70  85 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM.

&&

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....BLOTTMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
252300-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE AIR MASS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO
THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PENINSULA.
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO RAISE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING EXISTS ALONG THE COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH
WERE A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...COIN SIZE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN A FEW STRONGER
STORMS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
RECENT RAINFALL HAS LEFT MUCH OF THE GROUND OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR SATURATION.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IN THESE AREAS
WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. STANDING WATER ON ROADS AND BRIDGE UNDER WILL CREATE
A DRIVING HAZARD AND DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LAND WILL QUICKLY APPROACH
THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
OVER 34 KNOTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL RESULT. GET TO SAFE HARBOR BEFORE STORMS APPROACH.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
STORMS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY MAY ENCOUNTER INCREASED WIND SHEAR WHICH CAN PROMOTE THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WIMMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
139 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ141-147-251930-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
139 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY...

AT 135 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER
MAYTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE MIMS AND SCOTTSMOOR.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

1 INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED IN NORTHWEST VOLUSIA AT 120 PM.

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