Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH IN WWA SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
520 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY AND A FEW COULD BE SEVERE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MAJOR WX ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT:  HI AMP H85-H50 S/WV TROF OVER THE WRN
GOMEX...AN 80-90KT JET IN THE H30-H20 LYR...PLENTY OF UPSTREAM
MOISTURE...AND STRONG LOW/MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATING A
LARGE AREA OF ASCENDING H70 OMEGA.  HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAY...
THERE IS AN UPSTREAM TSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE NW FL
COAST...WHILE SCT SHRAS/ISOLD TSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NRN CWA THE ENTIRE EVENING.

THIS FINAL ELEMENT SHOULD DELIVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN TO CWA...
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE COMPLEX INDICATES BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE FROM OSCEOLA/INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES NWD.  WILL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY.  SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INDICATED BY THE 00Z KTBW/KMFL SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST LOWER PRECIP COVERAGE SWD UNTIL THE AIR MOISTENS UP A
LITTLE MORE...WILL KEEP THE SRN THREE COUNTIES IN HI SCT PRECIP.

STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY EMBEDDED IN A DEEP SWRLY FLOW
AND WILL LIFT NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THIS WILL CRANK A COOL FRONT
ACROSS THE GOMEX TOWARD FL TODAY...AND INTO THE S FL PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE S PENINSULA AS
ITS PARENT STORM SYSTEM PULLS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.

THU...WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND IT.  HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

FRI...GFS STILL SHOWING QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
NAM/UKMET ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE BUT MET POPS ARE AROUND 30
PERCENT SO HAVE BUMPED FORECAST UP TO SCATTERED.  IF SCENARIO OF
MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY PLAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR ENHANCES
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

SAT...RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE A WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MID LEVEL FLOW SHOWS SLIGHT RIDGING SO WILL CONTINUE PLAN OF LOW
AFTERNOON POPS.

EASTER...RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA SO THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS BUT WILL STAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.  THE
EARLY MORNING LOOKS WARM WITH CIRRUS LIKELY MAKING FOR A VIVID
SUNRISE.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S WITH POSSIBLY
SOME UPPER 80S IN SPOTS.

MON...PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS.  WITH THE RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH SLOW
TO LIFT OUT...STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

TUE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE SUNNY DAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY.  WINDS VEER TO WEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH.  NO HIGHLIGHTS
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.  EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO INCREASE DURING SUNDAY
AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  58  77  60 /  70  10   0   0
MCO  82  59  82  62 /  70  10   0   0
MLB  82  60  78  63 /  60  10   0   0
VRB  83  61  80  63 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH TIL 11 AM...LAKE/ORANGE/SEMINOLE/OSCEOLA/VOLUSIA
AND BREVARD COUNTIES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
600 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
232014-
FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
600 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...OSCEOLA...AND BREVARD COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM THIS MONRING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL COMBINE WITH
COLD DRY AIR ALOFT TO RAISE THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING. A TORNADO
OR FUNNEL CLOUD MAY DEVELOP IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
THE THUNDERSTORMS LINE WILL DROP SOUTH DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
STORMS WITHIN THIS LINE WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
THESE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR MARINERS.
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
STORMS MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST ALSO WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.  STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY MAY ENCOUNTER INCREASED WIND SHEAR WHICH CAN PROMOTE THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD RAINSHOWERS IN RECENT DAYS HAS LEFT MUCH OF THE GROUND OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR SATURATION.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IN THESE
AREAS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.  STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL CREATE A DRIVING HAZARD...
DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GENERATE ROUGH CONDITIONS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.  SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
4 AND 6 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS MAY AFFECT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

BRAGAW