Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN SHORT TERM.

CYCLONE APPARENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA HAS
GENERATED AN ARC OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN IOWA AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED CLUSTER NOW
OVER DANE & COLUMBIA COUNTIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALOFT...IN CONCERT WITH LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...HAS AIDED IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SIGNIFICANTLY
AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...THE
LAPSE RATES IN THE 0-3KM AGL LAYER ARE BETWEEN 8 AND 9 C/KM. THIS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID STORM GROWTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN THE WARM SECTOR. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF APPROXIMATELY 35-45
KNOTS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND 45-55 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN CWA...WHERE
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED. AS A RESULT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 01-02 UTC WHEN
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THUS FAR LARGE HAIL HAS
BEEN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WITH EVOLUTION OF MULTICELLULAR STORMS
AND A WELL MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND REPORTS ARE
ALREADY FILTERING IN FROM IOWA. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN STRONG BACKED SURFACE FLOW AND 0-3KM AGL HELICITIES OF 150-
200 M**2/S**2 BUT HIGHER LCLS MAY BE A NEGATING FACTOR.

THE LOW WILL EXIT OUT OF NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN THAT PERIOD...
POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS WITH TIME IN WRAPAROUND
HIGH RH PLUME AND END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ON NORTHERLY WINDS BEFORE ANOTHER WARMUP THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY WITH
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
MAKE A RETURN NORTHWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TORNADO WATCH 106 UNTIL 8 PM CST
FOR WIZ046-047-051-056>058-062>064-067>069.

EISE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-311100-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
300 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 65 MPH...LARGE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHOULD COME TO AN END ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 90 BY 800 PM CST. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 90 INCLUDING
THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS SHOULD SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER GRADUALLY END
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1100 PM CST.

WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AT UPPER
LEVELS...AND A POTENT SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN...WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND STRONG SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
308 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             RANDOLPH                43.54N 89.00W
03/30/2005  1.00 INCH        DODGE              WI   PUBLIC

            HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AT INTERSECTION OF HWY C AND
            HWY AC.

&&

BHAHN/GDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
317 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     HAIL             3 N SUN PRAIRIE         43.23N 89.23W
03/30/2005  1.25 INCH        DANE               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF ZANDER AND MEULLER ROADS.

&&

BHAHN/GDAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-302200-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
319 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 106 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND DODGE AND FOND DU LAC COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL 8
PM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR RIPON IN FOND DU LAC
COUNTY...TO FOX LAKE IN DODGE COUNTY...TO NORTHEAST DANE COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN FOND DU LAC
COUNTY AND WESTERN DODGE COUNTY THROUGH 4 PM. THESE STORMS HAVE
HAD A HISTORY OF VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

AN ADDTIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM IOWA COUNTY TO
SOUTHWEST GREEN COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND 55 MPH. THE LINE
OF STORMS WILL REACH A LINE FROM BARABOO...TO MADISON...TO
JANESVILLE BETWEEN 330 PM AND 415 PM. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY
BEING REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER MAY
DEVELOP.

STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS.

GEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
328 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NE FALL RIVER         43.44N 88.98W
03/30/2005                   DODGE              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD 5.5 MILES NORTHEAST OF FALL RIVER 5.5
            MILES NORTHEAST OF FALL RIVER. SMALL FUNNELS OCCASIONALLY
            SEEN ALONG HWY. 73.

&&

BHAHN/GDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
331 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NE FALL RIVER         43.44N 88.98W
03/30/2005                   DODGE              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD 5.5 MILES NORTHEAST OF FALL RIVER.
            SMALL FUNNELS OCCASIONALLY SEEN ALONG HWY. 73.

&&

BHAHN/GDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
333 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             7 N COLUMBUS            43.44N 89.03W
03/30/2005  0.75 INCH        COLUMBIA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG HWY. 73

&&

BHAHN/GDAVIS