Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EDGE EWD ACROSS ERN NC IN
ASSOC WITH SERIES OF MID/UPPER LVL WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION HAS
FLARED ON THIS BOUNDARY AND IS DRIFTING NORTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH LIFTING BOUNDARY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PCPN COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DAY ENOUGH TO KEEP
CWA OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN THOUGH RH VALUES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE QUITE HIGH. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME ISOLD SVR
TODAY GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY BUT OVERALL FEEL FCST WIND FIELDS
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY LARGE SCALE SVR THREAT. BIGGEST THREAT IS LIKELY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS FOR TODAY AND NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER TODAY WILL
NEED TO START THINKING ABOUT FLOOD WATCH FOR EACH DAY AS BOUNDARY
BECOMES STALLED OVER RGN WITH NO SIG MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT TO MOVE IT
OUT BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH BOUNDARY AS TRIGGER WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CORRESPONDING
LESSENING OF HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EXTENDED PORTION OF FCST. NEW GFS IS
INDICATING SOME DRYING WITH PASSAGE OF BOUNDARY BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
MON AS BETTER ORGANIZED UPPER TROF SWINGS EAST. NOT READY TO DROP
POPS YET AS MODEL WOULD INDICATE BUT WILL LOWER THEM SOME FOR THE
PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WILL MAKE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CHANGES TO GOING EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING MOSTLY FOR CIGS
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. NEW CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH SCT IFR VSBYS LIKELY IN HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA....WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. WILL USE
A TONED-DOWN VERSION OF THE GFS WINDS...WITH SPEEDS ABO 15 KT. WILL
ALSO SHAVE ABOUT A FOOT OFF WW3 SEAS HEIGHTS...KEEPING SEAS AOB
4 FT. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH A NE/E FLOW
REGIME TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WNAWAVE INDICATES INCREASED
WAVE/SWELL ENERGY MONDAY AS GFS SHOWS TROPICAL LOW SENDING AN ESE
SWELL TOWARD OUR CSTL WATERS.

RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY AS SWELL ENERGY STILL
MINIMAL AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW. COULD SEE INCREASING
THREAT SATURDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

MLF/RAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
458 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-290900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
458 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S COUPLED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110
DEGREES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT WILL LINGER OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND WILL HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FRONT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ103-290900-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-OUTER BANKS DARE-
458 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.