Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPR TROF OVR THE GRT LKS
REGION WL BE THE MAIN WX INFLUENCER INTO THE MID OF NXT WK. FEW CU
HV POPD THIS AFTN UNDR MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WI TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S. SFC FRNT OVR CNTRL NC THIS AFTN WL CREEP SLOWLY EWRD.
WRF...ETA...AND GFS ALL AGREE ON HVG THE FRNT APPCH THE CST TNGT
THEN MEANDER ARND THE CSTLN INTO FRI. IT REALLY DOESNT MK MUCH
PROGRESS TIL A PIECE OF UPR LVL ENERGY SWINGS ARND THE UPR TROF AND
PUSHES A REINFORCING BNDRY TWRD THE CST. ALL MDLS THEN SHOWG THE
BNDRY DVLPG A WV OVR SC...WHICH WL SERVE TO KP THE BNDRY NR THE CST
FOR A WHILE. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF LIFT OR MSTR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FA. SO WL KP POPS LO FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WK WI THE XCPTN OF FRI AS
REINFORCING SHOT BRINGS AN EXTRA UMPH.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NOT A VERY SUMMERLK PATTRN
OVR THE WKEND AND INTO THE NXT WK. FRNT THAT SLIPPD THRU THE AREA
FRI WL CONT TO LINGER IN THE AREA THRU THE PD AS UPR TROF HANGS
ARND. SRN STREAM BCMS IMPORTANT AS A PIECE OF UPR LVL ENERGY BREAKS
FREE OF THE UPR LOW AND RETROGRADES TO THE SW. THIS WL HELP THE SFC
WV DEEPN AND GFS KPS THIS BNDRY ALNG OR NR THE CST. WHILE MOST OF
THE LIFT WL BE OFFSHR...CANT RULE OUT ACTVTY MVG ONSHR OR DVLPG OVR
LAND INTO NXT WK. WL CONT CRRNT FCST TREND OF SLGT CHC...CHC NR
SHR...FOR THE WKEND AND FRST PART OF NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SEE LIGHT SW WINDS WITH SOME LOCALIZED
MVFR VSBYS AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING. A WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE PREVALENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINED WEST OF THE AREA. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT OVER NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS RUNNIG 2-4 FT. LATEST
WAVEWATCH III CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SEAS UP TO 5 FT OCCURRING OVER
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LOOKOUT TO
HATTERAS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS...DECIDED TO DROP THE SCA THAT WAS IN AFFECT AND REPLACE WITH
SCEC. EVENING SHIFT CAN DECIDE TO DROP THIS IF SEAS REMAIN LOWER
THAN FORECAST. A WEAK FRONT MOVES JUST OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A NUMBER OF
WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS A RESULT.NO FLAGS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE

&&

PUBLIC...CGG
AVIATION...JW
MARINE...JW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
327 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-170-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-
098-103-104-160730-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO SURF CITY NC FROM 20 TO
40 NM-MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-
BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
327 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT...WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CTC