Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...STRONG S/W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AREA OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A RESULT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS
...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. IN ADDITION... THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN DRIER LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS THE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THURSDAY
WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO 70S UNDER
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY NOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THRU THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS FRONT AS THERE WILL BE A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCT MVFR/IFR IN
SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE. WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AS LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE...SETTING UP N TO NE LOW LVL FLOW
OVER AREA.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE GFS WINDS. LOW PRESS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE COAST...THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE NE. PRESS GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A
SURGE OF CAA. EXPECTED SCA CRITERIA CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL WATERS N
OF HAT TONIGHT...THEN WATERS N OF LOOKOUT BY WED MORNING. CONDITIONS
S OF LOOKOUT SHOULD STAY JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA. SWELL CONTINUES FOR
NRN WATERS FOR THU...THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVING THU NIGHT AND FRI.

SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR OVERWASH NRN OUTER BANKS ON WED WITH HIGH
SWELL AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NW
THAN N-NE SHOULD KEEP WATER LVLS 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL OR LESS.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE THREAT N OF HAT DUE TO 2 TO 3 FT EASTERLY
SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE PERIOD. LOW THREAT SRN BEACHES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ154 FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
     THURSDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ156 FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
     WEDNESDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-152 FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8
     PM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...WINGENROTH
LONG TERM...WINGENROTH
AVIATION...PRINGLE
MARINE...PRINGLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
350 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-
103-104-250800-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-MARTIN-PITT-
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-
DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
350 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE...WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
628 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N WASHINGTON          35.59N 77.05W
05/24/2005  60 MPH           BEAUFORT           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING GROUND.

&&

RSB