Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

.SHORT TERM...LINE OF CONVECTION DVLPG FROM UPSTATE SC INTO ERN GA
IS LIFTING NNE THIS MRNG AS WARM SECTOR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO RGN
ALONG WITH GUD UPPER DIV AND H7 OMEGA. EXPECT THESE INGREDIENTS TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS MRNG. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE STG
LOW LVL JET THIS MRNG AS H8 WINDS VARY FROM 45 TO 55 KTS. SOME
VEERING ALSO NOTED IN LOW LVLS. FEEL BIGGEST THREAT THIS MRNG IS
LIKELY DAMAGING WINDS. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MRNG
TAPERING TO CHANCE BY EARLY AFTN AS BEST DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH. MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LVLS BY EARLY AFTN WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR PEAKS OF SUN AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
UPPER LOW OVER TN VLY IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO PUSH EAST TODAY WITH H5
TEMPS ARND -16C TO -20C BY LATE AFTN. ADD THIS TO BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW LVL WARMING AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES BECOME QUITE STEEP. MODELS
INDICATE LESSENING OF LOW LVL WINDS THIS AFTN SO FEEL BIGGEST THREAT
LATER TODAY WILL BE HAIL. PCPN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LVLS STABILIZE WITH
PASSAGE OF COOL FRONT AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. WILL CARRY FOG TUE
NIGHT AS TEMPS COOL EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND WINDS DECREASE.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER RGN WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WILL NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO EXTENDED AS CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS WARMING TREND THURS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE
EAST AND TROF DVLPS TO THE WEST. REINTRODUCE POPS FOR THUS
NIGHT...FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF THIS TROF. ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT COULD BE QUITE SIG FOR EARLY APRIL...BUT WILL NOT LOWE
TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE ATTM. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS IN EFFECT TODAY.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AS STRONG SFC LOW MOVES TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. TONED DOWN THE GFS WINDS TO HOLD SPEEDS
AT 30 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD ACCORDINGLY...WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 10 FT FCST S OF HAT.
WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AS LOW AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA. HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WED INTO THU. ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON FRI...WITH COASTAL
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

MLF/RAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-290905-
BEAUFORT NC-CARTERET NC-CRAVEN NC-DUPLIN NC-GREENE NC-JONES NC-
LENOIR NC-MAINLAND DARE NC-MAINLAND HYDE NC-MARTIN NC-ONSLOW NC-
OUTER BANKS DARE NC-OUTER BANKS HYDE NC-PAMLICO NC-PITT NC-
TYRRELL NC-WASHINGTON NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC BEACH...BAYBORO...BEAUFORT...
BELHAVEN...BEULAVILLE...BUXTON...CEDAR ISLAND...COLUMBIA...DUCK...
EMERALD ISLE...ENGELHARD...FRISCO...GREENVILLE...HARKERS ISLAND...
HATTERAS VILLAGE...HAVELOCK...JACKSONVILLE...KENANSVILLE...
KILL DEVIL HILLS...KINSTON...KITTY HAWK...LA GRANGE...MANNS HARBOR...
MANTEO...MOREHEAD CITY...NAGS HEAD...NEW BERN...
NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH...OCRACOKE...ORIENTAL...PLYMOUTH...SNOW HILL...
SWANQUARTER...SWANSBORO...TRENTON...WALLACE...WARSAW...
WASHINGTON AND WILLIAMSTON
405 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE AND GUSTS TO MORE THAN 60 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. LATER TODAY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. BY LATE IN THE DAY HAIL TO NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

MLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
629 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

NCZ079-090>092-098-281230-
DUPLIN-JONES-LENOIR-GREENE-ONSLOW-
629 AM EST MON MAR 28 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW...GREENE...LENOIR...JONES
AND DUPLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM EST...

AT 629 AM EST...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 60 MILES WEST OF
WARSAW TO 58 MILES SOUTH OF WALLACE...OR FROM RED SPRINGS TO 6 MILES
WEST OF LONG BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WALLACE AT 655 AM EST...WARSAW AT 700 AM
EST...KENANSVILLE AT 705 AM EST...BEULAVILLE AT 710 AM EST...POTTERS
HILL AT 715 AM EST...PLEASANT HILL AT 720 AM EST. OTHER LOCATIONS TO
BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE KINSTON...LA GRANGE AND SNOW HILL.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AREA
ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

8

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