Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Miami, FL

000
WWUS52 KMFL 291952
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FLC011-291959-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-050729T2015Z/
BROWARD FL-
349 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM THAT PROMPTED
THE WARNING HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER A THREAT...THUS THE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2605 8074 2602 8055 2627 8058 2622 8078

$$
CHRISTENSEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
JUST EAST OF IT OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BELIEVE GFS HAS A BETTER
HANDLE OF THESE FEATURE (AT LEAST INITIAL LOCATION OF UPPER LOW
JUST WEST OF ANDROS...BETTER THAN NAM). THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE KEYS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SAT MORNING ENHANCING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS FOR SAT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST INTO EASTERN GULF OF
MEX BY SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING EAST WINDS THAT WILL
TEND TO KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED TO INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS. WILL KEEP LOW SCT POPS EAST COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...HOWEVER WILL INDICATE HIGH SCT POPS FOR NAPLES AS AS WEST
COAST WILL LIKELY BE MORE ACTIVE WITH THIS REGIME.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE
LEEWARD ISS. ALTHOUGH IT WAS LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE EARLIER (FRI
MORNING) IT NOW SHOWS A MORE RAGGED LOOK. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLAND/AND QUICKSCAT SHOW NO CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE QUESTION IS WHAT EFFECT IF ANY WILL HAVE ON OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST? WELL SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND BRING IT TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEFORE TURNING IT
NORTHWEST WITHOUT MUCH EFFECT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND...TREATS THIS SYSTEM AS OPEN WAVE AND BRING IT TO FLORIDA
SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE WED THROUGH THU EVENING. WILL TEND TO GO
CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...GIVEN THE RAGGED LOOK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
STILL WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS BEFORE MAKING
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE DUE TO
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD...BUT
REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MEAN RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 89 78 90 / 30 50 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 88 79 89 / 30 50 30 20
MIAMI           79 90 79 91 / 30 50 40 30
NAPLES          76 89 76 90 / 20 60 40 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

47

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1206 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

FLZ063-066>075-301000-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
1206 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SCATTERED MAINLY INLAND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

HANDEL