Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
919 PM EST TUE NOV 1 2005

.UPDATE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF NAPLES THIS AFTERNOON
HAS MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS LOW TOOK MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS OVER
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDED BACK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NEAR NAPLES LATE THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT WAS HELPING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. SO PLAN SAYING
SCATTERED CONDITIONS TAPERING TO ISOLATED CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY IN THE ZONES.

THE POPS WILL THEN REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS
THE DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE DRY AIR WILL
THEN REMAIN OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH. SO HAVE REMOVE THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. REST OF THE ZONE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLAN.

FOR THE MARINE PACKAGE...THE ONLY CHANGES IN HEAR TO TO LOWER THE
POPS TO ISOLATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND NO POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE SAME REASON MENTION ABOVE FOR THE ZONES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR A SCEC ON WEDNESDAY...AND A SCA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY OVER THE CWA.
SO STAY TUNE FOR LATER INFORMATION ON THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SCA
FOR THE WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&
BAXTER

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT MOVED OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING A
VERY ACTIVE SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KEYS AND MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA HINT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING IN THIS
AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INITIALIZE WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE PAST TWO INCHES ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE MOIST TROPICAL
AIRMASS...THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS CALLS
FOR COPIOUS RAINFALL AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.

MEANWHILE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT CLEARING TO COMMENCE TOMORROW MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR. FOR THE
MORNING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND WEST
COAST...TO HIGH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC
WATERS. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED EAST WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LEAVING RAIN CHANCES
LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UPWARD SLIGHTLY UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...MID RANGE MODELS SHOW A MODEST
TROUGH DEEPENING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A RETURN TO
CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY...THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...EXPECT MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY
OVER GULF STREAM WATERS IN THE ATLANTIC AS THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST.

FIRE WEATHER...DRIER PATTERN STARTING TOMORROW...BUT ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. TRANSPORT WINDS AND DISPERSION VALUES WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1009 PM EST TUE NOV 1 2005

FLZ063-066>075-021000-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
1009 PM EST TUE NOV 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT...
...MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR
THUNDER MOVE INSIDE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

FLOODING: RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 2 TO
4 INCHES CAN OCCUR WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THE DEBRIS FROM
HURRICANE WILMA...MANY OF THE DRAINS ACROSS THE AREA COULD BECOME
CLOGGED AND LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON LOW LYING AREAS AND
ROADWAYS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
929 PM EST TUE NOV 1 2005

FLZ063-066-069-070-020330-
EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-WESTERN COLLIER-
929 PM EST TUE NOV 1 2005

AT 924 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EXTENDING FROM 14
MILES SOUTH OF MARCO ISLAND TO THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
STRENGTHENS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.