Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY WEATHER DAY ACRS THE MID SOUTH. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS LEFT 1 TO
2 INCHES ACRS MUCH OF W TN AND N MS THIS MORNING. ROUND NUMBER 2 IS
WELL UNDER WELL ATTM. NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STARTING TO MOVE INTO WRN AR. OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHES IN AN ARC
FROM NRN AR TOWARD CLARKSDALE. THIS FRONT IS PUSHING EAST INTO THE
MID SOUTH. GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH WINDS BACKED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE FRONT CREATING LARGE VALUES
OF HELICITY INVOF FRONT. MEANWHILE DRY SLOT IS PUNCHING INTO ERN AR
WITH SFC TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AT SGT. AIRMASS WILL CONT
TO DESTABILIZE SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONT DURING THE REST OF THE AFTN.
STORMS WILL CONT TO FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM NW MS
INTO ERN AR THIS AFTN. THESE STORMS WL PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MID SOUTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE HAIL THOUGH WITH THE ENHANCED HELICITY ALONG THE FRONT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM BASICALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A DYERSBURG TO SAVANNAH LINE.

HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA EAST OF THE MS RIVER TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EARLIER TODAY COMBINED WITH RADAR
TRENDS AND UPPER LOW TRACK PLACE WEST TN AND NRN MS IN POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN AREA. BEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN PROBABLY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WL CARRY WATCH UNTIL 6 AM SINCE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

UPPER LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE MS RIVER BY 12Z THU MOVING ACRS
NRN MS DURING THE DAY. WL KEEP RELATIVELY HIGH POPS ACRS THE AREA.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WL BE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE
DEFORMATION AREA ACRS NE AR...MO BOOTHEEL AND NW TN. THUNDER CHANCES
HIGHEST EAST OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING AS THE
LOW TRACKS EAST.

UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NRN GA THU NIGHT AND PRECIP WL TAPER OFF. RIDGE
BUILDS ACRS THE AREA FRI THROUGH SUN WITH MILD TEMPS AND DRY
WEATHER.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
AREA WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUN NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN MS UNTIL 600 AM.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST TN UNTIL 600 AM.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-071100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
350 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR ALL OF EAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND PART OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE PART OF WEST TENNESSEE IS BASICALLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF A DYERSBURG TO SAVANNAH LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES MEMPHIS...
TUPELO...CLARKSDALE AND JONESBORO.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BEST AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF A WYNNE ARKANSAS THROUGH MEMPHIS TO
PONTOTOC MISSISSIPPI LINE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEST
TENNESSEE NOT IN THE TORNADO WATCH. THIS AREA IS NORTH AND EAST OF A
DYERSBURG TO SAVANNAH LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES JACKSON AND PARIS
TENNESSEE. STORMS WILL EVENTUAL MOVE INTO THIS AREA WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS AREA WILL BE FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
PRODUCING THE THREAT OF FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

TNZ049-062100-

TIPTON TN-
341 PM CDT WED APR 6 2005

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...TIPTON COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF MUNFORD AT 341 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

THIS STORM COULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN TIPTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.