Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Memphis, TN

000
WWUS54 KMEG 222202
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

ARC037-222215-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-050322T2215Z/
CROSS AR-
400 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 415 PM CST FOR CROSS
COUNTY...

AT 359 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VANNDALE...OR ABOUT NEAR WYNNE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHERRY
VALLEY.

.HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAS BEEN REPORTED 8 MILES WEST OF WYNNE 
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE 
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3536 9104 3515 9104 3525 9061 3546 9083

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
230 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NE OK/NW AR THIS AFTERNOON. SFC LOW OVER AR
WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST ACRS ERN AR AND INTO SW TN. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW FROM CNTRL AR TO NRN LA. AREA
88DS SHOWING CONVECTION STARTING TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE
OVER ERN AR ARCING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER LOW. AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE...QUICKLY DESTABILIZING.
CAPES ABOUT 1000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S
ATTM. AS COLD POOL ALOFT...-22C AT 500 MB...MOVES CLOSER AND SFC
TEMPS CONT TO WARM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAPES SHOULD REACH 2000
J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES...LOW WET BULB ZERO FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH
THESE STORMS. EXPECT THE ARC OF DEVELOPING STORMS TO MOVE ACRS THE
CWFA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68 IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM. THERE IS SOME LEFTOVER SHEAR INVOF OF WARMFNT...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO ACRS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL/NW TN.

STORMS WL MOVE INTO MID TN LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT LINGERING
SHOWERS ACRS NRN AND ERN SXNS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN DURING THE AFTN.

NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH ON THU AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS KS/MO REGION. GOOD WAA ACRS
THE MID SOUTH SO SFC TEMPS WL CLIMB TOWARD 70 DEGREES. THU NIGHT A
WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA. SYSTEM SEEMS MOISTURE STARVED SO A
20 POP WL DO FOR NOW.

FRONT THEN STALLS ACRS THE REGION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DEPICTING SFC WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD. THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY CLEARS THE AREA BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

SJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
245 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-231200-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
245 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE MID
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ARKANSAS
INTO KENTUCKY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 3 PM UNTIL 6
PM FOR EAST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE MEMPHIS
METROPOLITAN AREA. THIS AREA INCLUDES JONESBORO...MEMPHIS AND
HELENA. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM FOR THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA INCLUDES DYERSBURG...JACKSON AND TUPELO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
248 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

ARZ027-035-222110-

CROSS AR-POINSETT AR-
248 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CROSS AND POINSETT
COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF FAIR OAKS AT 248 PM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM MAY CONTAIN PENNY TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

PEOPLE IN CROSS AND POINSETT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             4 E HICKORY RIDGE       35.40N 90.92W
03/22/2005  1.00 INCH        CROSS              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL 4 MILES EAST OF
            HICKORY RIDGE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 193 AND
            HIGHWAY 42

&&

CORDERO