Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM KMKL TO KSGT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS. ELSEWHERE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DID REDEVELOP ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AT THE BASE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS THEY ROTATE AROUND A
NORTHERN ONTARIO LOW. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND AREAS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH CELLS
MAINLY REMAINING BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BLOCKING
RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE MID SOUTH WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. ADDED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO AROUND 7 C/KM WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES ALSO INDICATE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN STABLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
410 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-221100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
410 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE STATE LINE AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10
PM. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.