Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
217 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED LATE THIS MORNING IN WEST TENNESSEE
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE
FIRED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. BACK TO
THE WEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ANCHORED ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS HAS PRODUCED RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION HAS BEEN
WEAK. THIS HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE VERY SLOW AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND A NARROW
BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS TODAY. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL SLOWLY
COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST...BUILDING FARTHER EAST. AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100. HEAT INDICES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO REACH DANGEROUS
LEVELS. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL
BE POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

AC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-201000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
335 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TODAY. AS A RESULT...THERE
IS A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A HOT AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DURING THIS TIME. HEAT INDICIES COULD BE
NEAR 105 DEGREES. ANYBODY WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED SHOULD
PREPARE FOR THE HEAT. THIS INCLUDES THE ELDERLY...THOSE WITH HEALTH
PROBLEMS AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING. A HEAT ADVISORY MIGHT
BE ISSUED THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S JACKSON             35.56N 88.83W
07/19/2005                   MADISON            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SHED BLOWN OFF FOUNDATION, OLD CHURCH DAMAGED, AND
            SEVERAL TREES DOWN JUST SOUTH OF PERRY SWITCH RD

&&

JFB