Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1042 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

.UPDATE...
15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC FRONT FROM HELENA THROUGH MEMPHIS
TO JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON TN. THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AIRMASS BECOMING UNSTABLE WITH SFC CAPES ALREADY
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER ACRS THE
REGION AND THIS MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. NOT MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT TODAY AND LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN 6 C/KM SO EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO BE PULSE IN NATURE AND MOST LIKELY NOT SEVERE. WL
DECREASE POPS ACRS NE MS SINCE MORNING ACTIVITY JUST ABOUT OUT OF
THE AREA OTRW ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED...MORE NUMEROUS
TOWARD SRN SXNS. TWEAKED TEMPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTN.

MADE A SMALL CHANGE FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. ETA SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. WENT AHEAD AND MOVED POPS A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA. WL CONT TO LOOK AT THIS
FOR THE AFTN PACKAGE.

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM NEAR JONESBORO TO
BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO THE ARKLATEX. CONVECTION FROM
LAST EVENING ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH A PORTION OF THE MID
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF
2500 J/KG...LI/S AROUND -6...AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY PULSE TYPE CONVECTION...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE POOR AROUND 5 C/KM. BOTH NAM/GFS SIMILAR WITH TIMING OF
FRONT. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS MORNING AND ISSUE AN UPDATE TO TRIM
POPS IF FRONT MAKES SOME PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND MOVES EAST.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN
FORECAST AREA WITH TAPERING POPS OFF TOWARDS THE TN/MS BORDER.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 3 /CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/ WILL MOVE INLAND
AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. NAM/GFS BOTH HAVE SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE NAM TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHILE THE GFS HAS A NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND TPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL LOW. WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND NOT
CARRY ANY POPS ON THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRINGING PRECIPITATION
FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THURSDAY.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

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