Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
200 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HAZY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END BY THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL
EXIT THE MIDSOUTH. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
FRIDAY EVENING AND BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS FRONT NOT EXITING MIDSOUTH UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS PRECIP IN UNTIL SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP AS IS FOR
NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY AND WILL BRING
DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
FRONT STALLING OUT OVER CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THIS TIME. WILL ADD 20 POPS TO THE FORECAST.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MSZ001-002-007-008-010>013-020>022 UNTIL 600
PM CDT.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FOR TNZ001-002-019-048>050-088-089 UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

KRM

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