Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...

A SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD
AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE A BIT
STRONGER TODAY BETWEEN THE WESTERN TROUGH AND TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE. STILL EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY STORMS...AS PWATS ON THE
HIGH SIDE. ALSO CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...SO ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PRECEDING TROPICAL STORM ARLENE.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTS
FROM THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM POORLY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF FURTHER WEST WITH
LANDFALL AS COMPARED WITH THE GFS. CURRENTLY LIKE 12Z GFS SOLUTION
BETTER AND PREFER A FURTHER EAST SOLUTION AS THE TREND HAS BEEN TO
MOVE ALONG A TRACK FURTHER EASTWARD TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE MEAN
TROUGH/RIDGE CONFIGURATION APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE FURTHER
EASTWARD TRACK AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL CHANGE GREATLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH A FURTHER EAST TRACK...THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
WEEKEND FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...AS THE GREATEST HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE. BEST THINKING AT THIS POINT IS THAT ARLENE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOMORROW EVENING. THEN THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD
TRACK NORTH...WITH BEST ESTIMATES ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF OUR
CWA...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN TO OUR EAST. STILL...WITH
MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE DECIDED
TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS IN
THE WEST. ALSO...THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER WEST THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. STAYED TUNED FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
ON THIS STORM SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP QPF VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...
WITH LESSER VALUES WEST. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE...THESE
TOTALS WILL NOT LIKELY RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES. IF RAINFALL
INTENSITIES ARE GREAT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING AND PONDING OF ROADWAYS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REVISED AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
ARLENE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE TIME PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JLH