Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1041 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ENTERING WESTERN WISCONSIN AT THIS
TIME. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US
WHILE A CLOSED LOW IS ANCHORED OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST LOW TO
NEAR KANSAS CITY AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A DECK OF LOW LEVEL
CU AND STRATUS LIES JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CU
DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY. TEMPS WITH THE MORNING SUN HAVE SHOT UP WITH
MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 80S. ALTHOUGH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOW DOWN THE TEMPS...THINK THAT MANY AREAS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DUE TO THE HEAD START ON TEMPS THIS
MORNING. WILL LEAVE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. ALSO AIR MASS VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SINCE THERE REALLY ISNT MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE AND
INSTABILITY IS DESCENT...LI AROUND -4 AND CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SLIGHT RISK. THIS THREAT IS MAINLY
A HAIL THREAT WITH ADDED FORCING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

VALLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1244 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-201100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
1244 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL UNTIL 7 PM. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN MOST ROW
OF COUNTIES UNTIL 9 PM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

VALLE