Freeze Warning 3, NWS Memphis, TN

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
154 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
OUT OF NECESSITY...SEVERE WEATHER...DISCUSSION WILL BE FAIRLY
SHORT...FOR ME. IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO WHAT IS
CURRENTLY OUT THERE...WILL UPDATE THIS DISCUSSION.

TWO LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT...WITH
SECOND LINE JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. TEMPS AHEAD OF
FRONT IN 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN 60S. TEMPS BEHIND FRONT IN 40S AND
50S.
&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FIRST PERIOD POPS WILL BE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AROUND 2130Z.
SURE THAT SPC WILL ISSUE ANOTHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CWA NEAR
PRESS TIME...AS CURRENT WATCH EXPIRES AT 23Z. WILL LIKELY CLEAR
COUNTIES BEHIND SECOND LINE BY PRESS TIME. WILL PROBABLY LET WIND
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 00Z...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBS BEHIND FRONT TILL
PRESS TIME.

MUCH COLDER BEHIND FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS COLD AIR STRATUS
BEHIND FRONT ACROSS ABOUT NORTHERN HALF OF AR. QUESTION BECOMES
WHETHER THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIFT OUT OF AREA BY MORNING. CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR MOST OR ALL OF AREA BY MID-
MORNING TOMORROW. TEMPS BEHIND IN SUNSHINE WELL BEHIND FRONT ARE
AROUND 50...SO THIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

WINDS DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SKIES CLEAR...DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. ALL ELEMENTS IN PLACE FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE WEATHER IN AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL NOT CONFUSE ISSUE WITH ANOTHER HEADLINE. FREEZE
WARNING WILL LIKELY GO OUT ON MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FREEZE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING WITH MINOR MODERATION IN TEMPS.
&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER FRIDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH PERIOD...AS PATTERN HAS CHANGED WITH RIDGE
OVER WESTERN U.S. SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
ANOTHER ONE ABOUT TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH EITHER
SYSTEM SO NO PRECIP MENTIONED.

SOME WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT MEX NUMBERS FOR
SATURDAY LOOK OVERDONE. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  39  50  28  51 / 100  10  10  10
MKL  38  48  22  48 / 100  10  10  10
JBR  33  48  25  49 /  40  10  10  10
TUP  41  51  26  52 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

WAGNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-162345-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
344 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END
BY MIDNIGHT.

WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF HARD FREEZES. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE
GROWING SEASON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
TONIGHT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.