Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 212231
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
529 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

ARC107-212330-
PHILLIPS AR-
529 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR PHILLIPS
COUNTY...

AT 528 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS PHILLIPS COUNTY. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN 
RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY. PEOPLE SHOULD CONTINUE 
TO EXERCISE CAUTION FROM RUNOFF DUE TO THIS RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WATKINS      
CORNER...MARVELL...LAKE VIEW...CRUMROD...AND ELAINE.

.DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES AND INFORMATION. TO REPORT FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0
8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3460 9106 3413 9107 3412 9093 3424 9081
      3445 9061 3465 9092

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
245 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE KICKING INTO HIGH GEAR ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. MANY PLACES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ALREADY REPORTING HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES. A WEAK 500MB TROUGH HAS PROMOTED
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS PROVIDING
A FEW AREAS SOME TEMPORARY HEAT RELIEF.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER
70S EXPECTED FOR LOWS. COULD BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 22C OR 23C. THIS YIELDS
MAXIMUM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLE LOW 100S. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...HAVE A FEELING THAT 100 MAY BE HARD TO
REACH. IT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULED OUT BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT HEAT
INDICES WILL STILL BE BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES REGARDLESS IF 100
IS HIT ON THE THERMOMETER. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 10PM SUNDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH GREATLY BEGINNING TOMORROW. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN. OTHERWISE...MEAN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO LEVELS THAT WILL NOT
SUPPORT CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE CORE OF THE HEAT
WILL SHIFT WITH IT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA. MODELS PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A FRONT APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY
AND STALLING/WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
THIS IN MIND...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS WELL.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

JFB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-221000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
353 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE MID 90S TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUGGY AIR MASS
THAT IS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAT INDICIES GREATER THAN 105
DEGREES. ANYBODY WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED SHOULD PREPARE FOR
THE HEAT. THIS INCLUDES THE ELDERLY...THOSE WITH HEALTH PROBLEMS AND
THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT HEAT INDICES
COULD BE BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

VALLE