Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 152332
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TNC157-160015-
SHELBY TN-
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR SHELBY
COUNTY...

THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN EAST MEMPHIS AND CORDOVA WHERE 
SOME ROADS WERE IMPASSABLE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GERMANTOWN...
FRAYSER...DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS AND BARTLETT.

.A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES AND INFORMATION. TO REPORT FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0
8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3501 9021 3501 8965 3521 8971 3521 9002

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH BISECTS THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH HAS ALSO INITIATED ALONG OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT AROUND FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A REDUCTION IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN (HIGH PWATS)...GUSTY WINDS...AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG...THINK THAT MOST WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED GOOD HEATING AND RESULTANT POCKETS OF INCREASED
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN HELD BACK ACROSS
MOST AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS REMAINING ORIENTED OVER THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
OLD MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MAXIMUM
HEATING OF THE DAY. THINK THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
80S AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH WIDE RANGES IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
BASED UPON WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION EXISTS. IN ADDITION...WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2
INCHES...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BERMUDA HIGH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TODAY WILL BUILD
WESTWARD FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WITH UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE OVERALL CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL
BE DIMINISHED.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AMPLIFY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY BY MID-WEEK
CAUSING THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY ON TUESDAY
AND WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING SUMMER HEAT EXPECTED.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
352 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-161000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
352 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STATIONARY
OR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL CONTINUING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING OCCURS
OR WHERE ONE INCH OR GREATER HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE RECORDED.

JLH