Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROPICAL STORM CINDY
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS. FURTHER NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY RESULTED IN A DECREASE OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS 50KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET
DEPARTS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD BEGINNING TO
OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH. RECENT 88D TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOWING
ACTIVITY SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TODAY...T.S. CINDY WILL COME ASHORE TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK MID LEVEL DYNAMICAL FORCING
/700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE MORNING. CANNOT JUSTIFY POPS HIGHER
THAN SCATTERED IN THE MORNING WITH 700-500 MB MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WEAKENING TO AROUND 5 C/KM AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP POPS AS SCATTERED OR LESS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI WITH AREAS NORTH REMAINING DRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 17C...WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AGAIN LIKE YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF THE CWA INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT WILL DEPART THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION GRADIENT
WILL BE VERY TIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS
COMPETING SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE
AREA. MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO LOWS BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REPLACES
THE TROUGH AND TROPICAL LOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C SHOULD
PRODUCE HIGHS AGAIN AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG RANGE
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE
WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. GFS/EUROPEAN RUN IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT THOUGH THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM INLAND
ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION AS T.S. CINDY AND EUROPEAN MOVES TROPICAL
SYSTEM FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE DIMINISHING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. ALSO...STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM