Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 240409
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1006 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

TXC371-240430-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-050224T0430Z/
PECOS-
1006 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 PM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY...

AT 1005 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 10...
OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IRAAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...IRAAN...
INTERSTATE 10.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING 
WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH... PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL... AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND 
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE 
A STRONG BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3085 10234 3068 10222 3075 10184 3085 10187
      3092 10192 3099 10204

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE CALIFORNIA
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT.  THIS LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
EAST AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN ADVANCE OF YET
ANOTHER DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BENEATH THE MOJAVE LOW IS APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICAL FORCING APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA...AND
FAR WEST TEXAS.  AT THE SURFACE...THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A TATUM...PECOS...FORT STOCKTON...TO
BALLINGER LINE.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...WITH CLEARING SKIES
NOTED ELSEWHERE.  AMPLE SUN AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EXPAND NORTH
AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
INCREASES.  MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL BUT THE SHEAR
PROFILE DOES NOT FAVOR ROTATING CONVECTION...NOR ARE THE MLCAPES
IMPRESSIVE...WITH AT MOST PERHAPS 500 J/KG INDICATED OVER EASTERN
TERRELL COUNTY.  WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN VEERED...THEREBY KEEPING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWFA.  GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...WE BELIEVE
THAT A 3D MULTICELL MODE WILL BE THE PREFERRED MODE WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WILL BE FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS...WHERE THE BEST MIX OF BUOYANCY...SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING EXIST.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA AS
SURFACE COLD POOLS INCREASE OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.  MEANWHILE
THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME ACTIVE LATER THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE PRESSURES INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  CONVECTION
WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED AND BUOYANCY
DECREASES. OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES...INCREASING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN RA/SHRA
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

BEST POPS TONIGHT WERE DRAWN IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC QPF PROGS BUT DID INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.  ALL OTHER GRIDS
REPRESENT A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AS THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THEIR SOLUTIONS
THROUGH 24/12Z.

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND AN INTRUSION OF COOL SURFACE RIDGING THROUGH DAY 3.
MINOR EDITS WERE REQUIRED TO THE GOING FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDING A
GENERAL INCREASE IN POP/S AND MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ALIGNMENT AND
PHASE.

BY 12Z THURSDAY THE CLOSED SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL HAVE ONLY PROPAGATED AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. YET
FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE COMMENCING IN EARNEST AS
DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC/WAA PROCESSES COMBINE TO
WARRANT LIKELY CATEGORY POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN FA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO AND THE BEST FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUB-FREEZING SATURATED COLUMNS OVER
NORTHERN EDDY COUNTY BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
TOP OF THE SATURATED COLUMNS COOLING TO NEAR -20 DEGREES C BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME GIVEN BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

LITTLE/NO FORECAST CHANGES BEYOND DAY 3 THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              39  45  34  46 /  60  50  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                41  43  33  46 /  50  70  60  30
DRYDEN TX                  51  53  40  51 /  60  50  40  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  48  37  50 /  60  60  50  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  42  31  46 /  40  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   40  44  32  45 /  60  70  60  30
MARFA TX                   41  51  33  50 /  40  50  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  46  34  47 /  60  50  40  50
ODESSA TX                  39  46  34  47 /  60  50  40  50
WINK TX                    43  47  36  50 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

70/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
930 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-241952-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
930 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 (100 PM MST WED FEB 23 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING..,
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND RESULT IN NO ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE...THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MAF