Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IN THE SHORT TERM.  THIS ALONG WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN CWA CONTINUE TO AID IN THE
PRODUCTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING.  WITH THE SHARPENING DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...BULK
SHEAR VECTORS OF 40 KTS AND CAPES OF NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  WILL LEAVE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT.  THE
DRYLINE WILL STAY IN THE EXTREME WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THEREFORE MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA
SATURDAY.  A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN OVER WESTERN ZONES DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND MIX EAST...REACHING ROUGHLY A GAIL...GARDEN
CITY...BAKERSFIELD...TO SANDERSON LINE BY MID AFTERNOON.  MLCAPES
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES
OVER 20 M/S.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED AROUND 2000 UTC
OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES...THEN EVENTUALLY DOWN ALONG THE DRYLINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEEDED.  WHILE THE
OVERALL MIX OF BUOYANCY AND KINEMATICS FAVOR 3D SUPERCELLS...THE
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AS FORECAST LCLS ARE FAIRLY HIGH
(CA. 1800 M AGL) AND SUBCLOUD HELICITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE (CA. 100
J/KG).  CONSEQUENTLY WE EXPECT THE SIGNIFICANT THREATS TO BE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS...IN THAT ORDER.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW...WITH AT
MOST 30 POPS EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS.

LATER SATURDAY EVENING...THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARD
THE WEST AS THE PBL DECOUPLES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO BACK IN
THE DRY AIR.  AS INDICATED VIA Q VECTOR AND IPV PROGS BETWEEN 08/0000
UTC AND 08/0600 UTC...DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL EXPAND THE SEVERE THREAT TO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY EVENING AND INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY.  AS IS THE CASE FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AND HIGH WIND ARE THE LIKELY THREATS
FROM THIS CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF TORNADOGENESIS MAY
INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING CONDITIONAL UPON LOWERING LCLS AND IF
SUPERCELLS CAN TAP SUBCLOUD VORTICITY ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES LAID DOWN
FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THEREAFTER...A SLOSHING DRYLINE SETUP REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.  WE WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING OUT OF THE MEAN WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROBLEMATIC...AND PRECISE POSITIONING OF
THE DRYLINE AT SYNOPTIC TIMESCALES IS FOLLY.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT
DRYLINE MIXING WILL REACH THE FAR EASTERN CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THAT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE EML INCREASES.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW ORDER POPS ACROSS
THE EAST LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND HAVE MAINTAINED
FOR THE MOST PART.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
A FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IT
TO OUR NORTH BUT THIS COULD CHANGE...THERBY AFFECTING SENSIBLE
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HAVE TO GIVE A NOD TO THE GFS AS IT APPEARS TO BE BETTER INITIALIZED
THIS MORNING.  MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURE...DRYLINE...AND WIND GRIDS ARE
THUS WEIGHTED STRONGLY TO A MIX OF THE GFS AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE
VALUES WITH SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS.  DID
HAVE TO INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EAST EACH MORNING...
HOWEVER.  SKY AND QPF GRIDS LOOKED FOR THE MOST PART ON TARGET AND
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE WERE NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              58  83  60  87 /  20  20  40  10
CARLSBAD NM                58  85  56  88 /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  88  61  87 /  20  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  78  55  79 /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   58  84  57  86 /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   50  80  49  81 /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  84  60  87 /  20  20  30   0
ODESSA TX                  61  85  60  87 /  20  10  30   0
WINK TX                    62  93  60  93 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

54/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
715 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-072003-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
715 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005 (615 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS...TRANS PECOS...DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY AS THE DRY LINE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TRANS
PECOS...DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN IS REQUESTED THIS
EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY AGAIN BE REQUESTED OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN...WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS ON SATURDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
613 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005

TXZ058-059-067-074-070000-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-LOVING TX-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER
TRANS PECOS TX-WARD TX-
613 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR REEVES...SOUTHWESTERN LOVING
AND WARD COUNTIES.

AT 609 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SEVERAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION. THE
STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF TOYAH MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM WILL MOVE ALONG INTERSTATE 20 TOWARDS PECOS BY
645 PM CDT.

STORMS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STAY ALERT TO
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
643 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005

NMZ027-028-070045-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS NM-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY NM-
543 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EDDY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF WHITES CITY AT 543
PM MDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY...INCLUDING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.

PEOPLE IN EDDY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF CARLSBAD...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
746 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005

TXZ057-058-074-070115-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS
TX-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR TX-
746 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EAST CENTRAL CULBERSON...NORTH
CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND WEST CENTRAL REEVES COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER KENT AT 746 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KENT AND WAS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS ACTIVITY IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY
DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PERSONS NEAR KENT AS WELL AS MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 10 SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.