Severe Thunderstorm Warning 333, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
126 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LEAVING US IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC FLOWING INTO THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE
ROTATES NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS
CONVECTION IS IN THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. GIVEN THE STEEP 700 TO
500MB LAPSE RATES AND 30KT 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR...SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WILL ADDRESS THIS THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON
HWO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...
NOT MANY CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS UP
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE TOMORROW AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE PUT ISOLATED POPS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN SE NM WHERE LIFT WILL BE BEST. COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO LEFT
POPS LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE HIGH AND DRY FOR THE
REGION. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SE NM BY MID WEEK
BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE LOW SO WHILE /EXTREMELY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...DONT LOOK FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TEMPS AS WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS POSSIBLY BEGINNING TO TREND DOWNWARD TOWARDS
WEEKS END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              68  94  68  96 /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                67  93  64  93 /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  72  97  66  96 /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  96  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  87  65  87 /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  91  66  92 /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  87  57  86 /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  95  68  95 /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  69  95  70  95 /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    69 100  70  98 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

74/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
103 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
103 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2005 /1203 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN...SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.
SOME OF THE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY MAY BECOME SEVERE.  ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND