Severe Thunderstorm Warning 332, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 150404
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1103 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

TXC115-150413-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0332.000000T0000Z-050915T0415Z/
DAWSON-
1103 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 1103 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS
CANCELLED.

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS PASSED... PONDING OF WATER 
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON SOME ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ALONG U.S. 87 NEAR
ODONNELL. MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN CAUTIOUS AND BE PREPARED TO SLOW 
DOWN IF WATER IS ENCOUNTERED TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND LOSS OF 
VEHICLE CONTROL.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3296 10202 3285 10194 3296 10174

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...
14/18Z SURFACE OBS INDICATE A WEAK DRYLINE FROM THE NORTHERN DAVIS
MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE
DRYLINE ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S F WHILE READINGS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY INITIATED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS... WITH THE CU FIELD
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING ALONG THE DRYLINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WITH THE FOCUS
OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF SCURRY COUNTY IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MODERATE RISK.  A SLIGHT RISK
EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BACKING SURFACE WINDS WILL RESIDE.
SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE A
WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KINK WILL TEND TO KEEP MOISTURE/SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST PER SPC AREAL OUTLINES OVER
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. WE WILL
ALSO MENTION STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PLAINS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG OUT IN OUR CWA FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG A NE TO SW DIAGONAL LINE ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN BACK INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.  FOR THURSDAY...THIS
WILL GIVE US ANOTHER CHANCE AT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL ALSO AID SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCALES.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN THE AREA SO ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENTS COULD LEAN ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBILITY IN HWO.
WITH PWS STILL IN THE 1.50 INCH ARENA...CANT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

AFTER THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER LOCATED ROUGHLY
OVER THE BIG BEND REGION.  THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA FROM OLD MEXICO AND SETTING UP THE
FAMILIAR PATTERN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND BY EARLY TO MID WORK WEEK THE CENTER WILL BE LOCATED
ROUGHLY OVER THE ARKLATX REGION.  THIS WILL AID IN PULLING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND CONTINUING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FORCING THE
MOISTURE UPSLOPE.  THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE...HOWEVER...COULD KEEP
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA A LITTLE DRIER DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST
IT BECOMES.  IF IT DEVELOPS AS THE GFS/NAM ARE ADVERTISING...IT WILL
KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.  BUT....THIS MORNINGS RUN OF THE DGEX SHOWS A FLATTER UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN WHICH WOULD ALLOW THESE DISTURBANCES TO MIGRATE AROUND
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...THEREFORE WARRANTING HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
LOWE 90S.  MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE WARM WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS...SO WILL LIKELY LOWER THOSE SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT GUIDANCE
SHOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              70  88  67  90 /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                62  91  62  91 /   0  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  72  95  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  92  70  90 /  30  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  88  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   64  89  58  90 /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   56  87  60  88 /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  90  68  90 /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  68  90  68  90 /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    70  98  72  95 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
838 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-160145-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
838 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005 /738 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...EAST OF A
SEMINOLE TO LAJITAS LINE TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING IN
ARROYOS...DRAWS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
655 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

TXZ081-150100-
BIG BEND AREA-
659 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF TERLINGUA RANCH
LODGE AT 655 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

TERLINGUA RANCH...HIGHWAY 118 WEST OF TERLINGUA RANCH AND HIGHWAY
385 NEAR PERSIMMON GAP ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
830 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

TXZ047-048-052-053-150230-
BORDEN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-SCURRY-
830 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

...TORNADO WATCH CLEARED FOR THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CLEARED THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
FROM TORNADO WATCH 790...

IN WEST TEXAS...

BORDEN...HOWARD...MITCHELL...AND SCURRY.

TORNADO WATCH 790 IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES.

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