Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 241745
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2005

TXC317-241800-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-050424T1800Z/
MARTIN-
1243 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 1241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWN...OR 17 MILES NORTH
OF STANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE... 
BROWN...RURAL LOCATIONS OF EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS 
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... 
YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER 
NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3228 10207 3222 10210 3212 10170 3251 10170
      3252 10194

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION ONGOING IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTOR SO HAVE PUT THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THAT REGION FOR THIS MORNING AND TAPERED THEM DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM THE WEST.  BY
TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.

HAVE GONE STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY OWING TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.  WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER MOST OF THE CWA SETTING UP A WEAK
UPSLOPE PATTERN WHICH WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.  HOWEVER...
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA.  THEREFORE
WILL NOT ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
THE BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL INTO
THE WEEK.  THE STRONG UPPER CYCLONE NOW OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST
TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY NORTHWEST THIS WEEK.  THE STRONG HIGH OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE ATOP
A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.  THEREAFTER
THE HIGH RETROGRADES OVER ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST LOW OPENS AND
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
WILL INDUCE RESPECTABLE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OKLAHOMA.  THIS IN TURN WILL
INCREASE GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE CWFA.  NAM CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO
THE GUADALUPES DO INDICATE A MODEST MOUNTAIN WAVE...BUT THE 700 HPA
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 20 M/S.  SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE A MARGINAL
HIGH WIND EVENT AT BEST...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE GUADALUPES NOW AND DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS AND MODEL RUNS.

AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...
SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE THAT COLD...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RUNNING A BIT BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.  THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING HITTING THE GROUND IS QUITE LOW.  BY
WEDNESDAY...LEE TROUGHING RENEWS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS...
AND WITH WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.  THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION.  RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOKS TO BE SHUNTED
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...CONSEQUENTLY BUOYANCY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
AND SIG WX NIL IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS SET OF GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED...PRIMARILY WITH WIND AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              69  49  77  48 /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74  51  78  50 /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  74  53  83  54 /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  53  80  52 /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  47  70  45 /  40   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   74  51  77  49 /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   76  44  73  44 /  40  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  51  78  49 /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  70  52  79  49 /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    76  52  85  51 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

54/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1132 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-251632-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
1132 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 (1032 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. HAIL TO SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY.
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE GUADALUPE PASS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY.  WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GUADALUPE PASS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND