Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 132226
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

TXC443-132245-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-050813T2245Z/
TERRELL-
525 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT 
FOR SOUTHWEST TERRELL COUNTY...

AT 523 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES NORTH OF SANDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...RURAL 
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST TERRELL COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY CLOUD TO 
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN 
HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK 
SAFE SHELTER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3008 10256 2997 10243 3022 10217 3038 10235
      3028 10236 3027 10240 3026 10255

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.SHORT TERM...
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING... ABUNDANT MOISTURE... AND
REMAINING BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS INTERACT TO INITIATE
STORMS.  LOOK FOR LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BRING UP GULF
MOISTURE WHILE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING UP PACIFIC MOISTURE.
KMAF 12Z PRECIPITABLE WATER THIS MORNING WAS 1.56 INCHES. COMBINING
THE MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECASTS LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.  NORTHERN ZONES
ARE FAVORED AS FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ABOVE
AVERAGE KMAF MORNING AND AREA MODEL SOUNDING PWAT VALUES OF GREATER
THAN 1.5 INCHES.

PORTIONS OF LEA... ANDREWS... AND SCURRY COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  IF STORMS DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS
WILL BE CONCERNED WITH FLASH FLOODING... BELIEVE MAIN HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUNDAY SO WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL TONIGHT IN
HWO.

.LONG TERM...
LIKE THE GFS HANDLING OF THE FRONT BRINGING IT THROUGH QUICKER
SUNDAY AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD AID ITS PROGRESS AND GFS
HAS PERFORMED BETTER THE LAST FEW FRONTS. THE COMBINATION OF
A DECENT LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND POTENT SHORTWAVES MAKE HEAVY RAINFALL
A CONCERN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL
THEREFORE ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE.
BUMPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MANY AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RESULT IN CHANCE POPS MONDAY. BY TUESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD A BIT BUT
A SHEAR AXIS/COL REGION WILL EXIST AND INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE POPS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD WESTWARD. WENT WITH SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM.

THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT.

COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BEEFED UP QPF GRIDS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH THE MAV SURFACE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              68  84  68  86 /  50  70  70  50
CARLSBAD NM                67  83  67  87 /  50  70  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  71  89  70  88 /  30  40  70  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  86  68  86 /  40  70  70  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  77  63  82 /  50  70  50  40
HOBBS NM                   68  81  66  86 /  50  70  50  40
MARFA TX                   60  80  59  82 /  30  70  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  84  68  87 /  50  70  70  50
ODESSA TX                  70  86  69  90 /  50  70  70  50
WINK TX                    71  91  70  92 /  50  70  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT SUNDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
     COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDREWS...BIG BEND
     AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
     AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA
     PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO
     VALLEY...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
     PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
     CORRIDOR...WARD...AND WINKLER.

&&

72/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-132200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
250 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 /150 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL
TO QUARTER SIZE AND 60 MPH WIND. THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY.
THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

TXZ062-132230-
MIDLAND-
433 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY.

A DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
VALLEY VIEW AT 433 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
MIDLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.