Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 042312
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

TXC329-042322-
/O.EXP.KMAF.SV.W.0287.000000T0000Z-050804T2315Z/
MIDLAND-
612 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MIDLAND COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 615 PM CDT...

AT 612 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXITED
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3191 10216 3208 10214 3208 10226 3187 10230

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

.SHORT TERM...
THE TUTT LOW...NOW EXTENDING FROM THE STOCKTON PLATEAU TO NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY
PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION.  EXPECT CONVECTION AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
BEHIND IT...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE MAY SEE SOME RESIDUAL EFFECTS FROM
EXITING TUTT LOW...AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE WEST
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES DOWN BY THE RIO GRANDE.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH...SO HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ONLY A LITTLE AND
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING AND DECAYING COLD FRONT
AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS (BETWEEN THE GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH AND
DELTA LOW) SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND WILL MENTION IN ZONES FRIDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOT OUT OF QUESTION SATURDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND THE AREA RECEIVES DECENT
RAINS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH CHANCE POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT
SOUTH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE DECAYING FRONT COLOCATED WITH
THE SHEAR AXIS. MOIST UNSTABLE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GENERATE
AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS BISECTED OVER THE AREA...
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND CLOSEST TO A 700 MILLIBAR
LOW/TROUGH. WENT WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN SOUTH
TO THE BIG BEND IN THIS SCENARIO. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST CYCLE. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV GUIDANCE ON WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MAV DEWPOINTS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH MOST
OF FORECAST IN MOIST REGIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              66  84  66  88 /  50  40  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                66  84  66  89 /  50  50  40  10
DRYDEN TX                  72  90  69  90 /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  86  68  89 /  40  30  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  78  64  82 /  40  30  40  20
HOBBS NM                   65  83  66  89 /  50  60  50  10
MARFA TX                   60  80  56  83 /  50  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  83  67  88 /  50  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  66  85  68  88 /  50  40  40  30
WINK TX                    69  91  69  93 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

12/49

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
125 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-051805-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
125 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2005 (1225 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS REGION INTO THE
EVENING. THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION ARE THE FAVORED
AREAS FOR HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...CREEKS...ARROYOS...AND RIO
GRANDE TRIBUTARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...LATER TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARLSBAD TO
COLORADO CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE FOCUS AND BEST
CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER.
HEAVY RAINFALL...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THIS AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCAL INTEREST SHOULD
KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCAL ACTIVATION EXISTS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND