Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 092248
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
548 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005

TXC415-092258-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0268.000000T0000Z-050709T2300Z/
SCURRY-
548 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SCURRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 548 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXITED
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS
CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3295 10066 3296 10080 3275 10067 3284 10067

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A TROUGH MOVES
ONTO THE NORTHWEST.  DAYTIME HEATING... OROGRAPHIC LIFT... OLD
BOUNDARIES... AND WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL COMBINE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION.  LAST NIGHTS STORMS HAVE JUST RECENTLY DIED OUT BUT AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON DAVIS MOUNTAINS ALREADY LOOKING RIGHT FOR FIRING.

CLOUD COVER FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HELPED TO HOLD DOWN TEMPS
THROUGH THE MORNING... BUT ONCE THE SUN BROKE THROUGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN
QUICKLY ON THE RISE.  MODELS SHOW INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH STORMS SO SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT.

THE MODELS DID A GOOD JOB DEVELOPING THE PRECIP LAST NIGHT AS FAR AS
LOCATION AND LOOK SIMILAR TODAY AS THEY DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD THEM EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING.  WEAK SHORTWAVES ROLLING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL
HELP DEVELOP THESE STORMS AND CONTINUE THEM OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONLY
MODERATE... THE LAST MEASURED PRECIP AT MAF WAS 0.92 ON JUNE 3RD.

RADAR SHOWED A BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH THROUGH ANDREWS COUNTY AROUND
NOON AND THIS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR LATER STORM DEVELOPMENT.
ALSO SATELLITE SHOWS A MCV FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS SPINNING OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS... THIS COULD INFLUENCE THE AREA IF IT DRIFTS SOUTH BUT
APPEARS TO BE MOVING LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHELY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE ESTENDING FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO. ETA AND GFS BOTH DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
TO THE PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ETA IS PARTICULARLY STRONG
WITH THIS FEATURE...DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
PARTICULARLY AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN DURNIG
MAXIMUM HEATING. HAVE PLAYED UP POPS AND QPF MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT.

BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING UPPER
HIGH IN THE WEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...RESULTING IN A
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. MOIST EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL
WILL FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE PLAINS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR
SURFACE TROUGH THAT SINKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...
WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION IN THE
PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...FORECAST WILL
DOWNPLAY THAT POSSIBILITY. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR THAT COMES INTO
PLAY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL EFFECT OF
DENNIS REMNANTS. MODELS HAVE INCONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE NORTHEAST
PROGRESS OF DENNIS BEING HALTED BY A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THOUGH RETROGRADING OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW OF
THE STORM AS FAR AS WEST TEXAS IS NOT REAL LIKELY...IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE EXTENDED.

RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER HIGH TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              71  95  74  96 /  30  30  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  96  73  97 /  40  20  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  99  77 100 /  30  30  40  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  95  75  96 /  30  30  40  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  87  72  88 /  40  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   70  96  73  97 /  40  20  30  10
MARFA TX                   62  92  64  93 /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  95  74  96 /  30  30  30  10
ODESSA TX                  72  97  74  98 /  30  30  30  10
WINK TX                    73 101  74 102 /  30  30  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

72/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
134 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-101834-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
134 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 (1234 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DOWN THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS... WITH THE
PROBABILITY DECREASING EASTWARD.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

BY THIS EVENING...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND