Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE PECOS RIVER...FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING. ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST
PERMIAN BASIN TO THE TRANS PECOS REGION. ANTICIPATING THE FRONT TO BEGIN
TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT FINALLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT NEW MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE SHOULD
ALSO SURGE EASTWARD AS WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE DECIDE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AFTER 11 PM MST TONIGHT AS THE STRONGER
WIND FIELDS ALOFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA. IN ADDITION STRONG DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD ALSO AID THE CAUSE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER
LATE TONIGHT. WENT WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POPS FROM THE LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO PLAINS SOUTHEAST TO
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE IN THE EXTREME EAST IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF TIME AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/RETREATING WARM FRONT.
JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/QPF GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...
A POTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AS THIS LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WITH 500MB
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 50-70KT RANGE DURING THE DAY. HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AS WELL.
ONSET OF THESE WINDS MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING...AND
WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE IN THIS
REGION...WE WILL OPT TO CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR NOW. WE HAVE INCLUDED
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS AND APACHE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS...
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LOW. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
HIGH BASED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY
HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...A FEW HAIL PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH...CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LOOK FAIRLY STRONG...AND WE
HAVE INCREASED SURFACE WINDS AND ADDED WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG LOW
TAKES AIM AT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANOTHER SPRING
HIGH WIND EVENT LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...SO AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE HAVE NOT ADDED PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST
YET...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP AGAIN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              42  60  37  62 /  20  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                43  64  37  66 /  10  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  76  44  70 /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  68  42  67 /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          36  56  32  60 /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  62  36  66 /  10  30  10   0
MARFA TX                   37  64  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  65  36  65 /  20  30  10   0
ODESSA TX                  44  66  37  66 /  10  20  10   0
WINK TX                    45  68  39  67 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 6 PM CST
      SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
      EDDY COUNTY.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 6 PM CST
      SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
      SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
      AREA.

&&

12/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
130 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-261918-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
130 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005 (1230 PM MST FRI MAR 25 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...EAST OF A HOBBS...TO ODESSA
TO SHEFFIELD LINE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE
IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

HIGH WINDS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
229 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

TXZ070-260845-
REAGAN TX-
229 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN REAGAN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN REAGAN
COUNTY...10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG LAKE...AT 226 AM CST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM MAY AFFECT U.S. HIGHWAY 67 EAST OF
BIG LAKE BY 2:45 AM CST.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.