Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
958 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE OVERALL
INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS HAS WEAKENED A BIT OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND THE FOCUS IS NOW SHIFTING TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURING
ACROSS NORTHERN PECOS AND SOUTHERN UPTON COUNTIES. WILL UPDATE THE
MORNING POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SOUTHWARD TO THE BAJA REGION OF CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN
SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND EASTERN BIG BEND REGIONS BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING A ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF A SEMINOLE...KERMIT...FORT
STOCKTON...PANTHER JUNCTION LINE. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE
AFTERNOON CHANCE OF POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN IS CURRENTLY
INDICATED IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-110923-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
457 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 (357 AM MDT FRI JUN 10 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... WITH
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LAMESA...
MIDLAND... TO BIG LAKE LINE.  THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN AND THE ROLLING PLAINS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PERMIAN
BASIN ON TUESDAY EVENING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS COLD
FRONT COULD ALSO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT AGAIN BEING
LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS ALONG AND EAST OF
A MALJAMAR TO FORT DAVIS TO ALPINE LINE SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
856 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

TXZ062-063-068>070-075-101515-
CRANE-GLASSCOCK-MIDLAND-PECOS-REAGAN-UPTON-
856 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR PECOS...CRANE...UPTON...
MIDLAND...GLASSCOCK...AND REAGAN COUNTY.

AT 850 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM A GIRVIN...MCCAMEY...
RANKIN...TO MIDKIFF LINE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE SEVERE
LIMITS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOTORISTS AND RESIDENTS IN THE AREA NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS THAT MAY BE ISSUED FOR
THE AREA.

02